Is Adam Lind’s 2013 Improvement Legit?

Heading into the 2013 campaign I don’t think it’s a stretch to say the expectations for Adam Lind were extremely low.  ZIPS projections for his 2013 season were 263/315/451 with 22 HRs and a .329 wOBA.  If you asked most fans I think they would have felt those projections were a tad on the optimistic side.

Personally I was hoping the Blue Jays would upgrade over Adam Lind as watching apathetic at-bat after apathetic at-bat was getting more than frustrating as a fan.  Fast forward to today and as of June 26, 2013 Adam Lind is our top hitter.  I wanted to take a look at exactly what has changed and why he has found success again at the big league level.

Over his prior three season Lind was less than impressive (ok, he was awful) producing wOBAs of .309, .316 and .316 for the Jays at a premium offensive position.

What happened?

Let’s take a look at his stats.

Adam Lind  AVG   OBP   SLG   wOBA  HR   BB% K% BABIP  WAR
2011 .251 .295 .439 .316 26 5.9% 19.7% .265 0.2
2012 .255 .314 .414 .316 11 8.2% 17.3% .282 0.0
2013 .324 .388 .533 .393 10 10.1% 18.1% .363 1.5

Adam Lind not only leads the Blue Jays in wOBA but he has surpassed his total WAR from 2011/2012 combined in only 63 games thus far in 2013.  He is walking at a healthy clip while keeping his K-rate essentially unchanged and has hit the ball with much more authority.

Before I even started to write this piece I would’ve bet all the money in my account (-$45.74) that his BABIP was at a career high and alas of course it is.  Any time a player has a career season it is usually accompanied by a spike in luck and in this case his BABIP is about 60 points higher than his career norm (.298).

Let’s look at his batted ball profile to see if anything else stands out.

Adam Lind LD% GB% FB% HR/FB IFFB% GB/FB
2011 21.8% 40.0% 38.3% 17.0% 10.5% 1.05
2012 17.1% 48.3% 34.6% 12.1% 9.9% 1.40
2013 21.8% 43.5% 34.7% 16.9% 1.7% 1.25

His HR/FB ratio is actually right around his career level (15.1%) and his GB/FB is about normal.  One thing that is definitely improved is his infield-fly rate. He is simply not making weak outs or contact on a consistent basis.  This could regress to the norm but perhaps he has made adjustments in terms of his swing and plate discipline profile.  Given his increase in walks and overall patience at the plate I think there could be some tangible changes to his plate discipline profile.

Adam Lind  O-Swing%  Z-Swing%  Swing%   Z-Contact%  Contact%  SwStr%   F-Strike%
2011 37.1% 70.0% 50.8% 86.6% 78.7% 10.7% 58.1%
2012 31.3% 62.4% 44.5% 92.1% 84.3% 6.9% 56.4%
2013 25.0% 60.0% 39.8% 90.6% 84.5% 6.6% 58.7%

Adam Lind has made a stark transition to a much more patient hitter in 2013.  Swinging at over half the pitches he saw in 2011 to swinging at less than 40% this season is a dramatic change.  Considering he is making contact at the same rate but offering at less pitches out of the strike zone has to be a major reason for his turn around.

Perhaps other Blue Jays with a hack-tacular approach could read this and make similar adjustments?  The above chart and data is just incredible and gives real credence to the notion that Adam Lind is indeed a much different hitter in 2013.  There is nothing (outside of BABIP) that screams Lind cannot sustain this new successful approach going forward and I have to admit I was wrong about Lind heading into this new season.

Lind is our most consistent hitter and an integral part of the Blue Jays offense.

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