Laughing At, I mean, Reviewing Our 2013 Blue Jays Predictions

Well another season is almost upon us but today I wanted to take a look back at our 2013 Predictions for the Blue Jays.  Let’s see how terrible most of them probably were.

1) Blue Jays win total – 89 – over/under?
 ALE – OVER – I think it will be close but if the Jays stay healthy I think they can be a 90+ win team.
WK – Over.  If healthy…
Review: Well at least both Wes and I qualified the over with the standard “if healthy”.  They clearly were not but I am not even sure that mattered given how terrible the team played.
Score – ALE 0, WK 0
2) Blue Jays make postseason? Yes/No?
 ALE – YES – again, like the above question if the Blue Jays stay healthy I think they win the AL East.
WK – Yes.  The major additions/upgrades mean the expanded playoff format really works in their favour.
Review: Read above.  While I don’t want to say the kool-aid affected our sensibility who could’ve predicted such an awful season in March?
Score – ALE 0, WK 0
3) More HRs – EE or Bautista?
 ALE – Bautista.  I think Joey Bats comes back and displays the power stroke Jays fans have come to worship.
WK – Bautista.  Reyes + Melky = fastballs.  Lots of walks for both of them, too.
Review: Edwin Encarnacion followed up a solid campaign with an excellent 2013, taking his spot among the games best all-around sluggers.  EE had 36 HRs and Joey Bats managed 28 in another injury riddled season.
Score – ALE 0 , WK 0
4) Total HR total for EE & Bautista – 73 – over/under?
 ALE – Over.  I think Bautista hits over 40 and I think EE can hit 33 or more if healthy.  I like the over.
WK – Over.  They combined for 69 last season with Bautista playing fewer than 100 games.  I think EE hits fewer, but JB hits considerably more.
Review: After combining for 69 HRs in 2012 the powerful duo only managed 64 in 2013.  The blame lands squarely with Joey Bats for not staying healthy.  How both of us thought he would stay healthy was a tad optimistic.
Score  – ALE 0, WK 0
5) More SBs – Bonifacio or Reyes?
 ALE – I take the upset pick here and go for Bonifacio.  I think he will get enough playing time throughout the season to put his amazing base stealing prowess to work.
WK – This depends on Maicer Izturis and Colby Rasmus.  If Bonifacio sees significant time at 2B/CF, then he wins the SB crown, otherwise Reyes because he’s a full-timer.
Review: Jose Reyes managed only 15 SBs in 93 games.  Emilio Bonifacio had 12 SBs for the Jays in 94 games and 28 total SBs in 136 games.
I’m going to give us both one point here, out of pity.
Score – ALE 1, WK 1
6) Highest Blue Jays WAR – Batter?
 ALE – Jose Bautista.  Tempted to go with Jose Reyes but again I expect a huge year from Bats.
WK – Jose Bautista.  When he’s healthy, WAR loves him.
Review: Believe it or not Jose Bautista managed a 4.2 fWAR in 118 games while EE was good for 4.1 fWAR in 142 games.  Wes said it best, WAR loves him.
ScoreALE 2, WK 2
7) Highest Blue Jays WAR – Pitcher?
 ALE – Brandon Morrow.  If healthy he could challenge for the Cy Young.  A big if however.
WK – Brandon Morrow.  I agree with Gregg Zaun: pitching behind RA Dickey is going to help make this a breakout year for Mr. Morrow.
Review: This one is downright ugly as Morrow was worth negative -0.1 fWAR in a pathetic 54 IP effort.  I am tempted to take a point away from each of us.
Score: ALE 2, WK 2
8) More wins as a group – (RA Dickey+Brandon Morrow) or (Josh Johnson+Mark Buerhle+JA Happ)
 ALE – I am going with the duo of Dickey/Morrow over the rest of the staff.  I think both Morrow and Dickey are primed for big seasons and the win totals should follow.
WK – Johnson (contract year; #4 starter), Buerhle (Mr. Steady), and Happ (has looked great more often than not).
Review: Dickey and  Morrow combined for 16 wins in 44 starts while JJ, Buerhle and Happ managed 19 wins in 67 starts!  Is this not really an indictment on how terrible the Jays pitching truly was?
Score: ALE 2, WK 3
9) Brett Lawrie WAR – 3.5 – over/under?
 ALE – Over.  I think Lawrie rebounds with the stick and continues to play top notch defense to surpass 3.5 wins.
WK – Under, but slightly.  He’ll benefit from hitting #5, but he’s too injury prone and volatile.
Review: Brett Lawrie had an awful start to the season and really never found his groove.  He was worth a paltry 1.3 fWAR in 107 games.  Even his defense wasn’t overly impressive according to UZR.
Score: ALE 2, WK 4
10) Who will be Blue Jays top 2014 Baseball America prospect?
 ALE – SP Aaron Sanchez.  Though Roberto Osuna could surprise.
WK – I’m going with Roberto Osuna here.  I think Sanchez will slip a little and Osuna will take a giant leap forward.
Review: It was close between Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman with the former gaining the top spot on Baseball America’s top 10 Blue Jays prospect list.  Unfortunately the world of kid pitchers is volatile and Tommy John surgery took out Roberto Osuna after starting the season in fine fashion.
Score: ALE 3, WK 4
11) Predict AL East standings
 ALE – 1) Toronto, 2) Tampa Bay, 3) Boston, 4) Baltimore, 5) New York
WK – TOR, TBR, BAL, BOS, NYY.  We can’t assume injuries won’t play a significant role: look at the NYY–heck, even Cashman busted his leg.
Review: Boston, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, New York, Toronto.  No bonus points awarded for those terrible picks.
Score: ALE 3, WK 4
12) Predict AL/NL/WS winners
 ALE – AL – LA Angels, NL – Washington, WS – Washington
WK – This requires no fewer than 14 interrelated predictions…so…it’s my time to dream: Jose Reyes steals home and the Toronto Blue Jays win the World Series 4-3 over the San Francisco Giants.
Review: AL – Boston Red Sox, NL – St. Louis Cardinals, WS – Boston Red Sox.  I really did think Boston was due for a bounce back but maybe not quite THIS big of a bounce.
Score: ALE 3, WK 4
13) More saves – Casey Janssen or Sergio Santos?
 ALE – Casey Janssen.  I think when he returns he resumes his stellar relief work as the ninth inning guy,
WK – Based on Spring Training and Game 1 of Mission ’13?  Sergio Santos: 96 mph and a deadly slider.
Review: Casey Janssen and the Jays bullpen was a lone bright spot and Janssen managed an impressive 34 saves while Sergio Santos was once again injured and picked up only one.
Final Score: ALE 4, WK 4
Laugh away…

3 Responses to “Laughing At, I mean, Reviewing Our 2013 Blue Jays Predictions”

  1. 1 cracked walls? May 3, 2014 at 7:21 am

    Just want to say your article is as amazing.
    The clearness in your post is just nice and i can assume you are
    an expert on this subject. Well with your permission let me to
    grab your feed to keep updated with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please continue the rewarding work.

  2. 2 Wes Kepstro March 8, 2014 at 7:47 pm

    I think my only accurate words were ‘expanded playoff format.’ I like making predictions because they’re so hilariously off base. Good times!

  1. 1 Blue Jays 2014 Prediction Quiz | AL Eastbound & Down Trackback on March 27, 2014 at 6:53 pm

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