Riding with the Wind, ’14: Week One

Well, the first week of the 2014 season hasn’t exactly been exemplary for the Toronto Blue Jays. They played the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees in their first seven games of the season and are 3-4 at the end of a week.  A split in Tampa was somewhat encouraging; a series loss to the apparently over-the-hill-and-lost-their-skills Yankees wasn’t.  The Jays also lost Jose Reyes and Casey Janssen to the DL, forcing them to scramble a little.

RA Dickey has been (very) bad once and (very) good once, as has Drew Hutchison, though they did it in opposite fashion.  Mark Buehrle was staggeringly dominant.  Brandon Morrow and Dustin McGowan, the feel good story of Spring Training, were eminently hittable.  What we saw from two of the starters–Dickey; Morrow–was within expectations.  What we saw from another two–McGowan; Hutchison–was a learning experience.  What we saw from one of them–Buehrle–will probably never happen again.  Interestingly, however, the Jays were #1 in MLB in rotation WAR before the rubber match against the Yankees.  Improvement over last season is essential, but do they have the horses?

The bullpen, sans Casey Janssen who is also on the DL, has been its usual self: solid and over-worked.  A few blips are expected, as their #13 rank in MLB in ‘pen WAR attests, but overall they’ve acquitted themselves well.  In the series finale against NY, for instance, Todd Redmond, Steve Delabar, and Esmil Rogers combined to throw 5.2 IP of 3-hit, no-run ball with 1 BB and 6 Ks against the NYY, allowing the Jays at least the opportunity to get back into the game.  This is a good ‘pen that will get better when Janssen returns.  In a surprising early move Jeremy Jeffress, who struggled to find the strike zone, was DFA’ed and replaced by Marcus Walden.

Offensively, the Jays have either been brutal or very good.  Edwin Encarnacion, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Goins, Moises Sierra, and Brett Lawrie are struggling mightily and fit the fomer designation.  Edwin struggled out of the gate last season, then really hit his stride.  Expect that to happen again.  Colby’s off to a cold start and Goins/Sierra have little-to-no experience but Lawrie’s struggles are troubling.  He came up with a good reputation, but has yet to adjust well to the big leagues.  It’s difficult to know what to expect from Brett Lawrie.  Sierra’s still looking for his first hit of the season.  Goins wasn’t expected to hit.

Jose Bautista, Melky Cabrera, and Adam Lind are hitting well.  Jose looks like 2010-2011 Jose in the early going.  A tumour-less Melky is a sight to behold, running hard and pounding balls all over the yard.  His 3 HR already equal his total of 2013.  Expect a 3.0-3.5 fWAR season from him.  Adam Lind and Maicer Izturis are both off to very good starts offensively.  Jonathan Diaz, Reyes’ replacement, has contributed positive WAR so far, and reminds some of former super-sub John MacDonald.

The catching trio of Navarro, Thole, and Kratz isn’t a black hole in any way, which is refreshing.  Kratz was re-called when Janssen was put on the DL, Thole has caught Dickey twice and Navarro is receiving rave reviews from teammates.  He’s contributed offensively, as well, but not enough to be a positive contributor.  It’s his defense and game management that’s in focus.  Defensively, the trio really needs to work on throwing out base stealers.  The trio ranks 10th in MLB defensively, which is a serious upgrade.  Interestingly, the teams that rank #1 and #2 in catcher defense this season are the Mets and Texas.

Defensively this team is light years ahead of last year’s squad.  Diaz and Goins have been solid up the middle, as has Colby Rasmus.  Melky’s covering ground very well for him.  We don’t expect a Gold Glove, but we’re being treated to a vast improvement.  Melky and Rasmus both have OF assists already.  Lawrie’s hitting struggles aren’t affecting his play in the field adversely, while Lind and Encarnacion are passable at 1B.  Jose is Jose in RF.

The Blue Jays are 3-4, all against AL East opponents.  They have only one off day in April (tomorrow, April 7), and no off days in May.  It’s not going to be easy for them but, frustratingly, it’s crucial to get off to a good start in the AL East.  Last season the Jays were 2-5 after 7 games, on their way to a 10-17 April record.

This team needs to hold their own for the first couple of months.  A .500 record after a month or so is perfectly acceptable, because runs can be made.  Digging themselves too deep a hole, as they did in 2013, will result in another sub-par season and, undoubtedly, some significant changes.  What I’d like to see is consistency, whether consistently bad or consistently good is irrelevant to me.  Either way, they know what they have and corresponding moves can be made.

Wes Kepstro

Riding with the Wind, ’14: A Good Read

I just read a community research article at http://www.fangraphs.com written by Foster Honeck a few days ago, entitled “Baseball’s Biggest Market Inefficiency”.  It is worth your time, whether you agree or disagree with him.

I won’t play the role of spoiler, but I will make one comment about the Toronto Blue Jays: you will be interested or outraged or intrigued or surprised or something else to see the Jays’ rank.  It is unlikely that you will be indifferent.

Read it, enjoy it, respond to it thoughtfully, or react to it viscerally.  It was not what I expected nor did it tell me what I wanted to hear, both of which contributed to my enjoyment.

Wes Kepstro

Riding With the Wind, ’14: Ready to Go

It’s been interesting since the end of the 2013 season, with fewer moves than expected, rampant speculation, rumours, intrigue, disappointment, and, finally, resigned acceptance.  Without further ado, here’s the 2014 Toronto Blue Jays’ Opening Day 25-man roster with some brief comments:

Starters

RA Dickey; Mark Buehrle; Brandon Morrow; Drew Hutchison; Dustin McGowan

• There are 2 surprises in Hutch and McG, but they’re good surprises–they both have significant injury concerns but they both pitched very well in Spring Training;
• Brandon Morrow will once again be a key to the success/failure of the Toronto Blue Jays this season.

Relievers

Casey Janssen; Sergio Santos; Steve Delabar; Brett Cecil; Aaron Loup; Jeremy Jeffress; Todd Redmond; Esmil Rogers

• This is the strength of the 2014 Toronto Blue Jays, just as it was in 2013;
• Redmond and Rogers competed for the 5th spot in the rotation, but pitched poorly enough in ST to be relegated to the ‘pen as long relievers/spot starters;
• this, while somewhat disappointing, gives the Jays admirable depth behind Morrow/Hutch/McG;
• JA Happ was perhaps the biggest disappointment of ST as he was virtually handed the 4th spot in the rotation;
• Happ’s back flare-up saved the Jays from having to cut a player who was out of options (Redmond; McG; Rogers; Jeffress), or service time issues (Happ);
• with the speight of recent pitching-related injuries in MLB, the Jays didn’t need another Ervin Santana type of fiasco by losing a quality arm.

Catchers

Dioner Navarro; Josh Thole

• Dioner Navarro is a significant upgrade over JP Arencibia in every facet of the game;
• Thole beating out Erik Kratz was a surprise, as Kratz commended himself with a good ST, however, Thole does have years of experience catching RA Dickey;

Outfielders

Jose Bautista; Colby Rasmus; Melky Cabrera; Moises Sierra

• Anthony Gose played his way to AAA Buffalo–he may never hit at the big league level;
• Sierra isn’t ideal as a 4th OF, but he has improved and he’s out of options;
• Sierra will also see time at DH and possibly 1B against LHP;
• There are several questions here, and most of them relate to health: if these guys can stay healthy, they can be formidable and productive;
• the one question that isn’t directly related to health is this: who is the back up CF?  Can a tumour-free Melky spell Rasmus every now and then…?

Infielders

Edwin Encarnacion; Ryan Goins; Jose Reyes; Brett Lawrie; Maicer Izturis

• Ryan Goins may not hit his weight, and he only weighs 185 lbs.–his defense will need to be Wizard-esque to carry his bat if he doesn’t figure it out pretty soon (Mazeroski-esque is better since he was a 2B, but you get it, right?);
• Adam Lind will slot in at 1B as well, as might Moises Sierra;
• Edwin, Reyes and Lawrie NEED to stay healthy: Reyes has a slight hamstring issue and Edwin was plunked by the Yankees (no Granderson payback, I’m sure), but all reports indicate that they’re both okay;

Designated Hitter

Adam Lind

• chronic back issues and an inability to hit LHP are the questions here;
• however, both of those issues, while disconcerting, are answerable with the roster as constructed: Sierra and Encarnacion figure to see time at DH, plus possibilities like DH-ing Bautista and getting Sierra to patrol RF are also reasonable game-to-game scenarios.

The Bench will be comprised of Josh Thole, Moises Sierra, and Maicer Izturis and, as you can see, it’s a weakness.  Bounce-back years from Thole and Izturis will help considerably, as would one more player (such as uber-versatile-recent-pick-up-but-more-recently-cut Matt Tuiasosopo).  The problem is that the rotation has health concerns (Morrow; Hutch; McGowan), so the ‘pen needs to be fortified.  The ‘pen has guys who fill the role of swingman or long man, but several of them are out of options (Redmond; Rogers; Jeffress).  This stars ‘n’ scrubs roster was constructed with the related factors of health, depth and options playing vital roles.

This season won’t be like 2013.  Not only does it lack the hype and correspondingly high expectations; it lacks answers to some significant questions leftover from 2013.  The only way we’ll get those answers is by letting them play out over time.  The first several weeks of the season will be very telling for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Opening Day is exciting enough, as the season still has yet to unfold.  This one will be very special as Dustin McGowan is scheduled to start for the Blue Jays against Masahiro Tanaka of the New York Yankees.  Wouldn’t it be nice if the Jays play well this year, and we can sit back in November and say ‘that game set the tone for the whole season’?  Here’s to hoping…

Don’t let the lunatic fringe get you down if the Jays stumble out of the gate.  It could be worse: you could be watching darts.  Enjoy it for what it is.  Go Jays go!

Wes Kepstro

 

 

 

 

 

 

Riding with the Wind, ’14: Losing the Santana Sweepstakes…

According to multiple sources (www.mlbtraderumors.com, etc.), the Atlanta Braves have signed Ervin Santana to a one year deal to shore up their rotation after Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy were hurt.  Gavin Floyd isn’t due to return from surgery until about the middle of the season so the Braves swooped in and snapped up the best remaining free agent starter.

The Toronto Blue Jays, after declaring early in the off season that improving the rotation was a priority, are left out in the cold.  Honestly, there are three observations that I would like to make.  First, Santana made a deal that is MUCH more likely to help his career by signing with Atlanta rather than the Jays or Orioles.  He’s mainly a fly ball pitcher.  The heavy offenses and the band boxes in the AL East would more likely hurt his value.  This seems like a very good move on his part, and I can’t fault him for it.

Second, Alex Anthopoulos and the Blue Jays’ front office (i.e. Paul Beeston) deserve all the criticism thrown at them.  They had multiple opportunities to improve their chances to take advantage of the so-called “three-year window” by using the resources that “will be there if we need them”, and did very little.  I like the acquisitions of Navarro and Kratz but more needed to be done, namely 2B and the rotation.  This latest turn of events even has more of the serious supporters–not just the casual fans–outraged.  Their complacency is bewildering.  Many have picked the Toronto Blue Jays to finish 5th in the AL East this season, based on their inactivity and the glaring holes in their line up.

Third, there’s the message that’s been sent to the players.  After the debacle of 2013, changes needed to be made.  It wasn’t a strong free agent crop outside of Robinson Cano, but there was plenty of value to be had.  The strange thing is that no trades were made either.  All the while, AA was decrying the market: prices were too high for the potential value received in return.  To wit: the Cubs wanted Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman in exchange for Jeff Samardzija.

But even the players believed that signing Ervin Santana would be a positive move–several of Santana’s friends on the Jays lobbied for him to sign with the Jays.  The players have reportedly been watching the various situations very closely to see what management would do.  Since they’ve done nothing substantial, the message to the players is __________.  If the players are jaded by the Jays inactivity and if the Jays acquire a reputation, what effect will this have on future deals?  Sure it’s speculative, but…

Yes, of course, there are still 162 games to play, and everyone (except projected 4th starter JA Happ) seems healthy.  And yes, this is much the same unit that had so many fans and pundits drooling last off season.  But things have changed, and they’ve changed pretty dramatically.  A 74-88 season after such high expectations will do that.  Just like the 2013 season, more was expected of the 2013-2014 off season but very little was delivered.

Wes Kepstro

Riding with the Wind, ’14: Signing Santana Opens Doors

Of course it does, Kepstro…haven’t you kept tabs on the situation since last Saturday?  Well, there’s a new wrinkle, potentially, that could emerge, and it might benefit the Jays significantly.

Over at mlbtraderumors.com, someone asked Steve Adams in the Weekly Chat about the Atlanta Braves’ new situation.  Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen might be out for a long stretch and that team is built to win now.  The problem is that they’re at or near their payroll limit.  Ervin Santana might be no more than a pipe dream for Braves’ fans (the same can be said to/about Jays’ fans), or they might just plain lose out on him.  What can they do if Santana signs elsewhere?

Well, think along with me for a moment.  If the Jays win the Santana sweepstakes, one of their pitchers gets bumped down the depth ladder.  They already have several guys who are out of options who are candidates to be part of the rotation, including Dustin McGowan, Todd Redmond, and Esmil Rogers.  The Jays will need to move one or more of them.

The Bravos will still need an arm or two, and may need to bring a prospect up before he’s ready.  Steve Adams speculated that perhaps Atlanta would look to add an out-of-options arm (he mentioned Kevin Correia), or another inexpensive choice.  The Jays not only have out-of-options arms, they also have JA Happ, all of whom would be well within the Braves budget.

I don’t know if this will happen—there are a lot of contingencies and things that need to fall into place—but it’s one of the scenarios that the Jays face.  Let’s hope it comes to fruition: the Jays are the winning bidder for Santana AND THEN someone comes looking for their surplus arms.  It could happen, right?

Wes Kepstro

Riding with the Wind, ’14: Brandon Morrow

As I was reading something the other day I mused about what people say about Brandon Morrow.  The majority of comments that I’ve read seem to focus on his health, which I believe to be a positive step after reading so many TOR-should-have-kept-Brandon-League comments.  Man that was irritating.  The health thing is less so, but only marginally less so.

Brandon Morrow is a good pitcher.  The salient question is, ‘how good is he?’  The simple answer is pretty good, which tells us nothing unless we introduce some sort of comparison or contrast for context.  If he was among the league leaders in Games Started since 2010 and produced at his average rate over that 4 season stretch, he’d be a top 20 pitcher in MLB.  That’s how good he is.  His approximate value of about 14.5 fWAR would be in line with James Shields, Mat Latos, and Gio Gonzalez.  The Jays were supposedly in on the Latos and Gio deals.  Can you imagine…?

Of course he isn’t among the leaders in GS since 2010.  Brandon Morrow has started 87 G since 2010, or 47 fewer than the MLB leaders.  But it’s not only about durability.  In August 2010 the Jays shut him down because he had very little history as a starting pitcher, costing him a handful or so of starts.  Durability then became a factor, as a series of injuries have cost him about 40 starts.  We can’t get hung up on what might have been, however, but it doesn’t reflect reality.  The reality is that Morrow has started 87 G, which ranks 82^nd among qualified starters since 2010.

I wanted to see how Morrow stacked up against guys with similar challenges—mainly health issues—to get an idea of how effective or ineffective he’s been.  I was a little bit surprised.  What I discovered helped me to realize what needs to go his way in 2014.

On average it has taken Brandon Morrow a little more than 9 GS to accumulate 1 fWAR; because of that, I chose pitchers who were within five starts on either side since 2010.  That narrowed the group to 14 pitchers.  Of those 14 pitchers 4 made at least 4 relief appearances, which tends to skew the numbers a little too much for a lazy guy like me.  That left us with a group of 10 pitchers, of whom Brandon Morrow was one.  Here’s what Fangraphs had to say:

	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	babip	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
Peavy	91	90	582.1	7.77	2.21	1.08	.281	70.7	36.7	9.5	4.10	3.74	3.90	11.5
Lackey	90	90	564.1	6.78	2.68	1.02	.313	69.3	44.4	9.9	4.67	4.10	4.09	8.7
Billingsley	90	90	541.1	7.60	3.38	0.57	.304	71.2	46.7	6.4	3.77	3.44	3.90	8.2
Danks	90	90	575.1	6.51	2.60	1.13	.289	70.1	43.5	10.8	4.33	4.19	4.06	8.0
Garcia	89	89	535.0	7.22	2.67	0.62	.313	70.4	55.3	8.6	3.38	3.27	3.42	9.1
Morrow	87	87	504.2	9.47	3.46	1.00	.299	69.2	38.6	9.8	4.32	3.69	3.74	9.4
Buchholz	87	87	554.0	6.56	3.22	0.78	.268	76.4	49.1	8.9	3.15	3.91	4.09	9.3
Beckett	87	87	534.1	7.82	2.76	1.18	.291	71.0	42.3	11.6	4.33	4.08	3.87	7.6
Minor	86	85	507.1	7.91	2.54	1.08	.288	72.5	35.5	9.8	3.90	3.76	3.88	6.6
Johnson	84	84	516.2	8.54	2.84	0.66	.303	73.6	46.3	8.2	3.40	3.15	3.41	11.8

This is part of a bigger animal from: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=7%2cd

Several quick general observations:

• Yes, that’s Josh Johnson at the bottom of the table—I’m sorely tempted to release a torrent of profanity that would make Melissa McCarthy blush;
• Chad Billingsley should do whatever he can to be a Dodger for the rest of his natural born days;
• Is Clay Buchholz on the verge of being Romero-ed?  Seriously, how long can he do that in the AL East, in Fenway?;
• Josh Beckett is on the downside of a pretty good career, so including him might be a little unfair;
• Jaime Garcia and Mike Minor are good young pitchers

Looking at the table, Brandon Morrow doesn’t command the strike zone very well.  This undoubtedly contributes to his average of slightly more than 5.2/IP per start.  He’s below average at stranding runners and doesn’t induce many ground balls (I seem to recall him inducing his first double play ground ball in the final game of the season in 2011, but I’ll have to check…).

Positively, he mows down hitters like a scythe: his swing-and-miss stuff is thrilling to watch.  His babip against is slightly above league average but his HR/9 and HR/FB rates are better than average.  His peripherals suggest that he’s somewhat of a bad luck pitcher.  Given the Jays’ defense (*cough*RajaiMaicerBonifacioArencibia*cough*), it’s not surprising.

There are two things that must happen if Brandon Morrow is to pitch to his talent level.  First, he needs to be healthy.  If he reaches somewhere around 28-30 GS (career high 30 GS in 2011) and 180-200 IP (career high 179.1 IP in 2011), the Jays and their fans would be deliriously happy.  That would give him a range of about 6.5-7 IP/GS, on average.

Second, the defense behind him must be sharp for him to succeed.  He’s a strikeout/fly ball pitcher.  His low ground ball and high walk rates raise the significance of each ground ball he induces, meaning poor defense does more damage than just booted ground balls: his skill set suggests that he almost needs to strike out the side to get out of a tough inning.  Historically, the Jays’ defense has almost demanded it.  Whereas Mark Buehrle may induce several consecutive batters (or even innings) worth of ground ball outs, Morrow induces them infrequently.  Strong defensive performances by the infield help someone like Brandon Morrow considerably.

Our expectations of Brandon Morrow and the Jays have been tempered by injuries and poor performances.  Is 2014 the year that it all falls into place the way it did for the Orioles in 2012 and the Red Sox in 2013?  Who knows?  Brandon Morrow rounding into form (coming of age?) gives them a starter with top 20 skills, which may help us understand their reticence in acquiring a starter in the off season.   If he can be a top of the line guy that his talent level suggests is within his grasp, the Jays stand a good chance to be in the hunt.

Wes Kepstro

Riding with the Wind, ’14: It might not be that difficult to repeat…

But that’s NOT what we want; too many sub-.500 records are hard on the constitution.  Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs has just posted a piece offering WAR-based strength-of-schedule predictions for 2014.  The Orioles have the toughest schedule, while Washington plays the weakest opponents.  The Blue Jays have the third-toughest schedule.

The bad thing is that this confirms that the Jays have their work cut out for them.  The AL East is as strong as usual.  The decline of the Yankees is offset by the ascendancy of the defending World Champion Red Sox (ugh), the usually-strong Rays, and the strong off season moves by the Orioles.  If the Orioles sign Ervin Santana, the Jays are almost assuredly a lock for 4^th or 5^th place in the division.

The good thing about this is, well, um…ah…what I mean to say is…crap.  There isn’t much good about this.  It’s not very encouraging at all.

Anyways, keep this in mind as you watch the standings during the season.  A strong schedule will suppress win totals somewhat artificially, while an easy schedule will tend to inflate win totals, again somewhat artificially.  The impression I have from watching/following sports over the decades is that teams with artificially-inflated win totals don’t do well in the postseason.  At least they frickin’ make it to the postseason though…

Wes Kepstro

 

 

 

The Toronto Blue Jays, 2014: Riding with the Wind

Last season we borrowed from the images painted by glam rocker David Bowie in his classic, ‘Space Oddity.’  Major Tom’s tragic mission strangely anticipated the Jays’ own on-field tragedy.  High hopes led to disappointment in a flurry of injuries and poor performances.

Will this season be any different or will it be more of the same, results-wise?  Jimi Hendrix saw beauty at the Monterey Pop Festival.  He wanted to take that beauty and put it to music, so he thought of the experience and personified it in the form of a woman.  “Little Wing” was the result.  If you’re unfamiliar with Monterey Pop, Jimi Hendrix, or ‘Little Wing’, open another window in your browser, do some reading/listening, and come on back.  If you’re not interested, then this isn’t the blog for you.

The lyric ‘riding with the wind’ evokes an image of Jimi’s ‘woman’ soaring free, no longer earth-bound.  Riding against the wind is difficult, wastes precious energy, and often forces a traveller to seek shelter.  ‘Riding with the wind’ captures an elemental force of nature that can’t be controlled, just harnessed.   It’s about time for the Jays to harness the wind and loose the surly bonds of gravity.

The off season has been as quiet for AL Eastbound bloggers as it has been for the Toronto Blue Jays.  This blogger has had a tumultuous winter, but is ready and rarin’ to go for the 2014 season.  Can the same be said about the Jays?  TOR traded Brad Lincoln for Erik Kratz, signed catcher Dioner Navarro, cut ties with JP Arencibia, and they may be on the verge of signing Ervin Santana to a 1-year deal.  In other words the Jays, fresh from a 74-88 season, have inflicted a nauseatingly-inactive (passive?) off season on their fans.

They needed pitching, a catcher, a real 2B, and perhaps another OF.  They got Navarro and Kratz, and then complained about giving Navarro too much money over too many years.  Welcome to Toronto, Dioner.  Wait, wait, wait…after a tough season, we don’t need to start this one by complaining.

One thing we can say categorically about the Jays is that they are deeper, roster- and organization-wise, than they have been in years.  This is a good thing.  If Morrow goes down for a few starts I’d rather replace him with Esmil Rogers or Todd Redmond (or Sanchez or Stroman…drool, drool, drool) than Chien-ming Wang, Aaron Laffey, Ramon Ortiz, or, heaven forbid, Brian Tallet.

Also, a healthy RA and Melky and Rasmus and Bats and Reyes and Edwin are better than an unhealthy group with the same names.  Josh Johnson was bewilderingly bad as well as injured, so expectations coming into 2014 were murky.  Drew Hutchison is strong and healthy, and JA Happ, Kyle Drabek, and Dustin McGowan are all talented, somewhat healthy, and competing for roster spots.  Melky doesn’t have a tumour on his spine any longer, meaning LF might not be such an adventure.

That leaves second base.  Last year the carousel included, but was not limited to, Emilio Bonifacio, Maicer Izturis, Munenori Kawasaki and Ryan Goins.  Goins was the cleanest of the dirty shirts, ‘tho Mune gave us a lot of smiles while he filled in for Jose Reyes.  He performed passably at 2B.

The Jays plan to go with Goins at 2B (read, ‘it’s his job to lose’).  Ryan Goins is a shortstop, 25 years old, and doesn’t hit very well.  He’s their secret weapon at 2B, because the others proved they couldn’t handle it last season.  Several rumours (Brandon Phillips, Stephen Drew, Gordon Beckham, Darwin Barney, Nick Franklin, Dustin Ackley, etc.), have surfaced at one point or another only to disappear just as quickly.  It’s always come back to Goins.

Ryan Goins probably isn’t as good defensively as he showed in his 2013 cameo; let’s hope his offense is better than he showed in his 2013 cameo.  He’s one in a long line of good-field-no-hit middle infielders, of which the Jays have had a few.  Even in their heyday in the early ‘90s, they were going to run Manuel Lee or Dick Schofield out there and try to win a title.  Other teams have done the same sort of thing, some very successfully.  One key to success is the quality of the defense.  If it can offset significant shortcomings at the plate, then there’s a chance that he can contribute positively.  Other players in this mold include Ozzie Smith (maybe the best of this type), Bert Campaneris, Omar Vizquel, Larry Bowa, Mark Belanger, Bill Mazeroski, and from way, way back, Marty Marion.  Another key is the strength of the team’s overall offense.  If it can compensate for one black hole in the line-up, the chances of success are greater.

One thing that can be said about the 2014 season: it’s a book that is yet to be written.  The promise of so many pristine blank pages is alluring and exciting.  It’s part of what keeps us coming back for more, no?  Play ball!

Wes Kepstro

 

 

 

Why Not Blow It Up?

The Jays-related rumours continue as the offseason market heats up.  The market was slow to develop but has picked up speed recently as there have been several significant free agent signings and one blockbuster trade.  Of particular note to Jays’ fans was Josh Johnson signing an incentive-laden deal with the San Diego Padres.

The Landscape

The free agent market for pitching, catching, and middle infield is pretty thin right now, making upgrades difficult, if not impossible.  That leaves 2 main options: the farm and trades.  The farm isn’t deep enough to provide an answer for any of those positions, leaving trades as the primary means of improvement.  Is gutting the farm even more than they have already–in exchange for a 74-88 record, no less–the answer?

The Latest Rumours

No one knows yet what form any moves will take, of course, but it needs to be considered.  The latest rumours to hit the fan in Toronto are instructive.  Apparently, the Jays have varying degrees of interest in OF Matt Kemp of the Dodgers, free agent starter Ricky Nolasco, and starter Jeff Samardzija of the Cubs.

The rumours swirling around the Blue Jays’ interest in Jeff Samardzija focus on the Cubs receiving one or both of Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman, the Jays’ top 2 prospects, in the deal.

Jeff Samardzija is a good pitcher (good K-rate, K/BB ratio, ground ball ratio) who struggles somewhat to keep runners off base (higher walk rate) and to keep the ball in the park (HR/9 rate north of 1).  An average 9-inning start will yield 3 walks and 9 hits, one of which will leave the park.  He’s 28 and under team control for 2 more seasons.  His WAR over the last 2 seasons–his only 2 seasons as a starter–is unimpressive.  That the kind of market the Jays are scouring to find the hidden gem: a market that sees Jeff Samardzija as being worth at least one top pitching prospect plus other valuable young players.

At A Glance: Some Completed/Pending Deals

Jason Vargas signed with the Royals for 4 years/$32MM, 38-year old Tim Hudson signed with the Giants for 2 yrs/$23MM, and Dan Haren received a 1 yr/$10MM deal from the Dodgers.  These are mid-to-back-end-of-the-rotation guys.  The Giants also signed Tim Lincecum to a 2 yr/$35MM deal.

The St. Louis Cardinals just addressed their middle infield need by signing PED abuser Jhonny Peralta to a 4 yr/$53MM contract.  Apparently his 50-game suspension (Biogenesis) didn’t deter the Cards one bit.  He replaces Pete Kozma because someone should.

The best remaining shortstop on the market is Stephen Drew, who was given a Qualifying Offer by the Boston Red Sox.  He declined it.  I mention this because the Jays would like a shortstop to play 2B.

The Phillies, under the inspired direction of Ruben Amaro, Jr., re-upped with catcher Carlos Ruiz for 3 yrs/$26MM, and the Yankees locked up Brian McCann for 5 yrs/$85MM.  The best catcher remaining on the free agent market is Jarrod freakin’ Saltalamacchia.

But…

What about the other option?  What about hitting the reset button and blowing it up?  The Jays, given their situation and their needs, seem desperate: do they have to make a bad move?  Why not sell between now and July 31?  Let’s think about it for a bit.

The emotional position against selling is powerful, but not particularly compelling.  Who cares if people cry and wail and gnash their teeth if the Jays blow it up.  Also lacking teeth is the AA-is-trying-to-save-his-job argument.  As a matter of fact, it works in favour of blowing it up.  No, there are too many unknown variables in this option.  We don’t know what his relationship with Paul Beeston is like, we have no idea what the new guy will do when he starts in January, etc., etc.

Toronto Has Players with Value

In a market where the value of the positions that the Jays are trying to fill is ridiculously bloated, why not turn the tables on the game and find a loophole or inefficiency?  Alex Anthopoulos actually has a history of doing this and he has some (very) valuable chips to play in this game.

Pitchers:

RA Dickey

• RA’s a top-end starter with a good contract and a history of overcoming adversity;
• To Chavez Ravine if they lose Nolasco and Beckett continues to decline?  How about Dickey and Thole to PIT?

Brandon Morrow

• He has good ‘stuff’ and a nice contract, but is durability driving down his value?
• His skills play in almost any venue in either league;

Mark Buehrle

• His contract isn’t bad in this market, not for a guy who offers 2+ WAR and 200+ IP;
• Could TEX use his durability and reliability?

JA Happ

• He’s a serviceable starter and he’s left-handed: his value is similar to Jason Vargas, whom the Royals are now paying $32MM until 2017–Happ doesn’t cost near that much;
• The Angels want pitching and have a pitcher-friendly park–Happ’s also better than the pitchers they acquired last year;

Casey Janssen

• His numbers and that contract?  The line forms at the rear…;
• DET?  Nah, re-unite him with Jason Frasor in TEX;

Steve Delabar

• Some contending teams need his swing-and-miss stuff desperately;
• DET is calling;

Brett Cecil

• An All Star season highlighted by several substantial improvements mean Cecil has value as the #1 LHRP out of the ‘pen, LOOGY, or possibly even as a CL;
• Package him together with Delabar to DET and see what shakes loose.

Infielders:

Jose Reyes

• Similar to Buehrle‘s, Reyes’ contract isn’t nearly so bad in this market;
• With money to spend, a hole to fill and Peralta in STL, Reyes could return to a place where they lamented his departure and he’s still popular: the Mets;

Adam Lind

• A LH veteran hitter who torches RHP with a pretty friendly contract who returned to form in 2013;
• SEA?  PIT?  NYY?  Is Mark Teixeira still injured?  The short porch beckons…;

Edwin Encarnacion

• A premier slugger who’s become a student of hitting, has versatility (DH/3B/1B), and has one of the most team-friendly contracts in all of MLB: who wouldn’t want this guy?

Outfielders:

Jose Bautista

• Another premier slugger with a terrific contract, versatility, but who is one of the top RF in MLB when healthy;
• SEA is looking for a real OF, and they have pitching prospects;

Colby Rasmus

• A young player with team control remaining who provided >4 WAR for the Jays in 2013;
• I bet the Jays could have their pick of PHI‘s prospects if they wanted to move him;
• I also wonder if the Mets’ interest could be piqued…

Catcher(s):

JP Arencibia

• There are rumours that teams are interested in his services–I know, I didn’t believe it either, but the rumours persist;
• Find one of those teams and deal him, pronto;

Josh Thole

• His value is linked to RA Dickey, dictating any prospective destination.

So keep Edwin Encarnacion and Brandon Morrow, but the rest of these guys help to re-stock the farm pretty well with enough surplus value to get decent roster players too.  Filling out the remaining positions would be relatively simple, as there are plenty of mid-to-low-end FA’s available.  Heck, James Loney can play 1B…

Who cares what Joe Schmo in the 5th level or Billy Blogger say on their mobile?  Sure, it’s probably a PR nightmare and an on-field disaster in the making but, seriously, they’ve won 73 and 74 games in each of the last 2 seasons and missed the playoffs 20 years running.  Would we even notice the difference?  We’re used to it.  Besides, it’s an opportunity to get some reasonable value out of this market rather than giving up your 2 top pitching prospects for Jeff Samardzija, and then hoping to make more trades to fill other needs with prospects you no longer have.

Wes Kepstro

Mission ’13: A Mindset Informed by Chris Carpenter

I’ve been following the 2013 playoffs, but not very closely. A story that’s emerged is that Chris Carpenter may be at the end of a storied successful career. Perhaps it’s ironic that his career will come to a close with him on the 60-day DL. Perhaps it’s not. An imposing physical specimen (6’6”, 230 lbs.), Carpenter has struggled to stay healthy. He’s made no fewer than 13 trips to the disabled list. Five of those occasions saw Carp on the 60-day DL.

Drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in the first round of the 1993 draft, the Jays believed he was an ace-in-waiting.

The timing was good as the team was coming off back-to-back World Series titles and everyone knows that good teams are built on the talent that’s drafted and developed from within, don’t they? I guess we could say that, of all the things it takes to become a champion, talent developed from within the organization is indispensable. And the immensely talented Chris Carpenter was at the top of the class within the Jays’ organization.

Carpenter developed steadily and made the jump to the Majors in his 4^th season of pro ball. The results in the minors from 1994-1997 were mixed, and he looked overmatched in his first taste of the big leagues (81.1 IP/108 H/5.09 ERA). He walked 37 and only struck out 55. It’s not Matt Harvey territory, but it was a start.

Everything improved in 1998, as Carp appeared in 33 games, 24 of which were starts. But the really important thing was that he was learning from fellow starters Roger Clemens and Pat Hentgen, and from veteran catchers Benito Santiago and Charlie O’Brien. Sunshine and lollipops, man, sunshine and lollipops.

Chris Carpenter was an established major league pitcher by 1999 and made 92 starts (24, 34, then 34) over the next 3 seasons. He also suffered his first minor injury in 2001, as he was bothered by right elbow pain. Looking back it’s sort of ominous, but that’s what hindsight does: it makes us all seem like geniuses.

2002 was a different story. He missed 108 games, making 13 relatively ineffective starts in and around visits to the disabled list. Out of options and with 2 separate trips to the DL (a 15-day stint and a 15-day-transferred-to-the-60-day stint), the Jays tried to assign him to the minors. He refused and became a free agent. Chris Carpenter’s career with the Toronto Blue Jays was over after 152 G (135 starts), during which he compiled a maudlin 49-50 record and 4.83 ERA in 870.2 IP. The dream of a 1-2 punch of Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay barely got off the tarmac before it crashed and burned.

His career with the St. Louis Cardinals has been somewhat different. He’s compiled a 95-44 record and 3.07 ERA over 1348.2 IP. The disparity is painful for Toronto Blue Jays’ fans. Did the Jays’ brass err in allowing him to get away? What would it have cost them to keep him? Well, the Cards took a chance and knew they were taking a chance, but Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan were at the helm. They’d been responsible for more than one career resurrection over the years: think Dennis Eckersley, Dave Stewart, and Bob Welch. All 3 had been effective pitchers previously, but their careers were on the wane; all 3 enjoyed a resurgence under LaRussa’s and Duncan’s guidance.

Chris Carpenter was a different kettle of fish, though. The upside is that he was much younger than their other reclamation projects. The downside was that he represented much more of an injury risk than their other reclamation projects.

This is where LaRussa, Duncan and the St. Louis Cardinals’ brass needs to be commended. They signed Chris Carpenter as a free agent just before Christmas, 2002 (12/13/2002), to a 1 year deal worth $300,000 with an option for 2004. He missed the entire 2003 season because of shoulder surgery; they declined his option. The Cards signed him to another 1-year deal at the beginning of December (12/01/2003) with an option for 2005, and he was Comeback Player of the Year in 2004 (15-5, 182.0 IP, 3.46 ERA). They exercised his 2005 option and then he went out and won the Cy Young Award (21-5, 2.83). He made $2.6MM in bonuses in 2005 and $200,000 in bonuses in ’04

It was a gutsy move by the Cards and it worked out well. Or did it? He started 28 G in ’03-’04, and was left off the playoff roster after both seasons. The Cards are sort of the NL version of the Boston Red Sox: they aim for the playoffs, and when they get there, they expect to go deep. Chris Carpenter didn’t pitch at all in ’03 and helped them make the playoffs in ’04. But in 2005, he was brilliant. He pitched well in the playoffs before the Cards were dispatched in the NLCS. What to do, what to do, what to do…?

The Cards signed him to a 2-year, $13MM deal, laden with incentives and a 3^rd year option that would vest based on reaching various performance-related goals. Carp was very good in 2006 (15-8, 221.2 IP, 3.09). It wasn’t up to the standard he set during 2005, but no one was complaining. Oh, and the Cards won the World Series. Carp pitched 8 innings of 3-hit ball, didn’t walk anyone, and struck out 6 in his only start. He pitched 32.1 innings in the playoffs and, though the Mets knocked him around, his postseason ERA was 2.78 in 5 starts.

Then he started 5 ML games total in ’07-’08. Then he made 97 starts from ’09-’11, with 2011 culminating with another strong playoff performance and another World Series win for the Cards. They went to the NLCS in 2012 and Chris Carpenter pitched well again.

Since he established himself as a major league pitcher (1997-1998), Chris Carpenter pitched 3 different sets of 3 ‘full’ seasons in his career: 1999-2001, 2004-2006, and 2009-2011. The other years have seen Chris Carpenter’s career decimated by injuries: 13 G in 2002-2003, 5 G in 2007-2008, and 3 G in 2012-2013, or 21 G in 6 years.

Why did the Cardinals stick with him? Frankly, I don’t know. Toronto also saw the talent and the injuries, and still tried to hang on to him. He chose free agency then missed sizable chunks of his Cardinals career, including his entire first year with them.

Is there a lesson here for the Jays? I think so. The Jays currently have 4 pitchers who are very talented but also very injury prone: Dustin McGowan, Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek, and Josh Johnson. I suspect that at least one of those pitchers will make a significant contribution in 2014, and all of them have the talent to do it. The Jays showed that they were learning when they signed the oft-injured Dustin McGowan to a 2-year contract, and he made a contribution in 2013. The other 3 represent 3 pretty different situations:

• Morrow’s a shoe-in for the 2014 rotation if he’s healthy;
• Kyle Drabek is coming off his second Tommy John surgery, but threw the ball well in AAA and the ML when given the chance—his control/command are the main issue;
• Josh Johnson pitched poorly for the most part in a free agent year and has a checkered history when it comes to injuries.

The average of the top 125 ML salaries is $14.1MM; this is the value of the qualifying offer that a team can make on a one-year deal to their own prospective free agent. The Jays would be looney tunes to make a QO to Johnson. However, a one-year deal loaded with incentives makes sense, n’est-ce pas?

The Toronto Blue Jays have a chance to sign a pitcher the calibre of Josh Johnson to a peanuts-level contract loaded with incentives, and turn him into a mid-to-bottom-of-the-rotation guy. After all Chris Carpenter went from $3.45MM to $300K contract with an option and incentives. I know it’s not a straight-line comparison, but why the heck wouldn’t they do it? If they’re all healthy and in the rotation, can Morrow, McGowan, and Johnson average 2.5-3.0 fWAR each? The entire starting rotation produced 7.0 fWAR in 2013.

Wes Kepstro