The Sultans of Swing, our Toronto Blue Jays are on the verge of another baseball season. Here is a quick break from baseball for a sweet cover – fittingly given the composition of our roster with a Cajun flair!
Archive for March, 2014
Riding with the Wind, ’14: Gunning for League Average
Published March 30, 2014 AL East News , Jays Rumours , Jays Talk 5 CommentsTags: Blue Jays, blue jays 2014, blue jays second base 2014, can ryan goins improve in 2014?, ryan goins, ryan goins 2014, ryan goins blue jays second baseman 2014, toronto blue jays ryan goins 2014
This likely isn’t the first time you’ve read about Ryan Goins. It isn’t the first time that I’ve written about him, either. Given his relative lack of familiarity before his call-up last season, a lot of virtual ink is being spilled about him now. He was unnoticed in the minors because of his offense, which is, of course, why we’re all interested in him now.
Can a team that dreams about contending carry such a black hole on offense? Of course it can. Can their dreams be realized? Of course they can. But will they? That remains to be seen. Ryan Goins is terrible offensively, there’s no two ways about it. He has no power, he doesn’t walk, he strikes out too often, and, while that means there’s lots of room for improvement, there’s little chance that’ll happen, right? Maybe, maybe not.
I’m on record as saying that over the course of his career his “output surged beyond the previous lower level almost across the board”. He does a workman-like job, gets promoted, struggles briefly, and then improves upon his previous level. I believe this betrays his mindset: it seems as if he’s out to prove people wrong. I don’t know what kind of things are said to him, but he ain’t a big guy (5′ 10″, 185lbs.) for a pro ball player and, since bigger/stronger/faster prospects are generally favoured, we can make an educated guess.
He also isn’t a little guy who hits for unexpected power (Joe Morgan; Jimmy Wynn, who had one of the best nicknames ever–the ‘Toy Cannon’; etc.), or steals a lot of bases, or bunts well, or anything. But there’s something tangible–his defense–and something intangible–his desire to prove himself, maybe?–that makes me think he can play at the ML. But I could be DEAD WRONG.
We need some context, don’t we? The following table shows how well the average ML 2B fared offensively in 2013. We also included the averages from the two leagues.
2013 | BB% | K% | AVE | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
MLB | 7.3 | 16.6 | .257 | .316 | .376 | .305 | 91 |
AL | 7.6 | 16.2 | .260 | .320 | .377 | .308 | 91 |
NL | 7.0 | 16.9 | .254 | .313 | .375 | .303 | 90 |
*Table info courtesy of www.fangraphs.com.
The average 2B in MLB was a below-average offensive contributor which, given the nature and importance of the position, is acceptable to most teams. After all, not everyone has or can afford a Robinson Cano on the right side of the infield.
Fair enough but where does that leave us? Well, since there isn’t a lot of data from Ryan Goins’ major league career, we can look for comparisons and contrasts in the careers of others to give us a little bit of perspective.
Ryan Goins isn’t the only middle infielder in baseball history to struggle offensively. As a matter of fact, it’s almost cliché that middle infielders don’t contribute much with the bat. Players such as Cano, Roberto Alomar, Jeff Kent, and Joe Morgan are the exception rather than the rule. Defense is crucial at shortstop and second base.
Knowing this, we took a look at some of the more well-known middle infielders who struggled to produce positively with the bat. The following table shows how some of these defensively adept/offensively inept middle infielders fared in their first ML season. Ryan Goins’ 2013 effort in AAA Buffalo is included for perspective.
BB% | K% | AVE | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | |
Goins, AAA 2013 | 6.9 | 20.3 | .257 | .311 | .369 | .311 | 90 |
Mazeroski, PIT 1956 | 6.5 | 8.7 | .243 | .293 | .318 | .278 | 67 |
Belanger, BAL 1968 | 7.5 | 21.5 | .208 | .272 | .248 | .243 | 61 |
Bowa, PHI 1970 | 3.6 | 8.3 | .250 | .277 | .303 | .262 | 56 |
Smith, SDP 1978 | 7.0 | 6.4 | .258 | .311 | .312 | .288 | 84 |
Vizquel, SEA 1989 | 6.5 | 9.3 | .220 | .273 | .261 | .249 | 51 |
*Table info courtesy of www.fangraphs.com.
Here are some remarks from this info and from the broader statistical picture not included in the table:
- There’s only one 2B in the bunch—Mazeroski—but Goins fits well into both categories, being a converted shortstop;
- There’s obviously a big leap from AAA to MLB, one that so many players never make, but this offers some context for Goins’ offensive output;
- Not surprisingly, Ozzie Smith is the class of the field but even his numbers aren’t very impressive, though he played in Jack Murphy Stadium as a rookie;
- Larry Bowa and Omar Vizquel contributed very little offensively to their teams (PHI and SEA, respectively);
- Mark Belanger is the only one who debuted with a good team;
- The group combined to give only 10 seasons of 100 wRC+ (or greater): Ozzie Smith was responsible for seven of those seasons, and Omar Vizuel was responsible for two of them;
- Ozzie Smith’s first season of 100 wRC+ came in his 8th season in MLB;
- Ryan Goins’ AAA season is strikingly similar to the 2013 ML average for 2B;
- Ryan Goins’ AAA season also fits in very well with the debuts of these other middle infielders who were strong defensively/weak offensively.
Can we expect Ryan Goins to reproduce his AAA season from 2013? I don’t think so. He’s working diligently with Kevin Seitzer, but it will probably be a longer process than most people are patient enough to bear. What we’re likely to see is something along the lines of what Larry Bowa and Omar Vizquel gave to their teams.
There is one major difference that needs to be taken into account, though. The difference is that the Blue Jays’ offense is much more capable of carrying Ryan Goins in 2014 than PHI was of carrying Bowa in 1970 or SEA was of carrying Vizquel in 1989. The Phillies won 94 games in 1964 and bottomed out at 59 wins in 1972 (Steve Carlton’s 12.5 bWAR season). Bowa’s rookie season occurred in the midst of that downward trend. Vizquel’s 1989 Mariners had never enjoyed a winning season since joining MLB with TOR in 1977.
The real problem is whether the Blue Jays’ sketchy starting rotation can afford a black hole in the offense. His defense will be a boon to the rotation. However, it’s possible that Toronto gives up runs by the basketful in 2014, though this is arguably the best rotation supported by the greatest depth since Roy Halladay was the ace.
There are so many significant questions about the rotation—injuries, experience, consistency—that it would be foolhardy to expect them to resemble a championship staff. This consideration, in concert with a run-rich home park (The Rog) in a division skewed heavily toward offensive production, may sound the death knell for the confidence they’ve placed in Ryan Goins. After all, Stephen Drew is still out there.
I think his skills play at the ML level but, again, I could be dead wrong about this. The more pertinent question, I think, is ‘if the Jays stumble out of the gate, will Ryan Goins be an early casualty?’ He’s 26 and may never mature offensively, but he may line up very well with the likes of Mazeroski (20), Belanger (24), Bowa (24), and Vizquel (22) over his career. We dare not hope for him to be as good defensively as he was in his very brief debut, do we? That’s Ozzie Smith territory and it’s sacred. And we dare not hope that he’ll continue to improve offensively as the Wizard did, right? Right…
Wes Kepstro
Oh boy, last year was ugly and I recapped how pathetic our predictions proved to be for the 2013 Blue Jays quiz, check it out if you want a good laugh. It’s that time again and here is a fresh set of ten questions pertaining to the 2014 Toronto Blue Jays season.
I want to see more participation in the comments section, copy and paste the template I placed below in the comments and join in on the fun. It takes two seconds and we can laugh at your predictions as well as our own next year!
1) Blue Jays win total has been set by the bookies at 80.5. Over / under?
AL Eastbound – I am going to take the under here. I think the Blue Jays are a .500 team at best in the AL East this season given schedule and uncertainties surrounding the roster. In fact, I see big time downside if things don’t go exactly how we need them. Like top 5 draft pick downside. I also think there is the possibility of big time upside if the Jays stay healthy and Brandon Morrow and Drew Hutchison both pitch to their max. Maybe I am too negative but I stick to the Jays being a 75-80 win ball club in a tough division.
Wes Kepstro – I’m an optimist: over. I’m also a realist: not much over. As usual, it hinges on health.
2) Who will hit more HRs in 2014 – Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion?
ALE – I think Jose Bautista actually has a bit of a bounce back season and I think he barely edges EE in the HR department this year. Both should presumably mash however. So, Joey Bats for me.
WK – Even: they’ll each launch 36,
3) Who has a higher fWAR in 2014 – Brett Lawrie or Colby Rasmus?
ALE – I am going with Brett Lawrie here as in 107 games he managed a 1.3 WAR despite horrendous offensive numbers overall (.314 wOBA, 94 wRC+). With a little health and some offensive upside I think he could have a solid bounce back year. This is a wildcard selection as Rasmus was worth 4.8 wins last year in 118 games – pretty impressive.
WK – Lawrie, because he begins to put it together and Rasmus comes back a little.
4) Which Blue Jays position player will post the highest fWAR in 2014?
ALE – If I think Bautista is going to out-homer EE than I have to go with Jose Bautista for the highest fWAR on the 2014 Blue Jays. If he is truly healthy I feel he has a chance at a monster season. This might be a golden chance to get a good haul on the trade market if he does.
WK – Jose Bautista. WAR loves him and he has something to prove.
5) Which Blue Jays pitcher will post the highest fWAR in 2014?
ALE – I can’t believe I am going to say this but like last year I will select Brandon Morrow. If he is on his game and healthy he racks up strikeouts and keeps the ball in the yard. I will go with my 2013 prediction and roll with Morrow again in 2014.
WK – I’m with you: Brandon Morrow.
6) Will John Gibbons be fired by the Blue Jays during the 2014 season?
ALE – I think Gibby makes it through the season and is let go at the end of the season. If Alex Anthopoulos is still at the helm he will ensure Gibbons is treated with as much dignity as possible on the way out.
WK – It depends on the players. If they perform, they’ll excel meaning he’s safe.
7) Will the Blue Jays trade OF Jose Bautista during the 2014 season?
ALE – I think the safe answer is obviously no but I am going to go with yes. If Joey Bats starts hot and shows he can stay healthy I think Alex Anthopoulos pulls the trigger on a monster trade to recoup some of the lost value of the RA Dickey, JA Happ and Jose Reyes deals.
WK – No. He and his contract are far too valuable, even if they hit their mulligan into the pond.
8) Who will win the AL East Division in 2014?
ALE – Tampa Bay Rays. Most will predict Boston but I think they take a step back on the mound. Tampa will battle Boston all season and edge them out on the last day of the season.
WK – I like the Rays, too. They’re talented, well-coached, and hungry.
9) Who posts a higher fWAR in 2014 – Drew Hutchison or Ervin Santana?
ALE – I have to go with Hutch here and I think he provides some solid value if he can maintain solid health for 150-170 IPs. He is a key to any potential ‘upside’ to the 2014 Blue Jays season. I think Erv. Santana has a rockier season and pitches closer to his peripherals and declining K-rate.
WK – No brainer. A healthy Hutch out-performs a healthy Santana.
10) Who will win the World Series in 2014?
ALE – St. Louis Cardinals. They always find a way and will have an added boost of Oscar Taveras late in the season which should help an already deep club.
WK – Somebody. I hate to say it because I also cheer for the Giants, but I’ll pick the Dodgers. If they don’t win it, someone else will. There’s no repeat of 1994, and I suck at this.
Bonus question: Who will be better the M’s, the Yankees or the Orioles?
ALE – I’ll take the Yankees. Pineda is coming back, they added some pretty good free agent talent at key positions.
WK – Seattle. Their weak OF and suddenly-weaker division puts themahead of the NYY age/rotation/IF, and I expect Chris Davis/Adam Jones to step back, and Ubaldo to get roughed up at OPaCY/in the ALE.
Dustin McGowan – The Next Chris Carpenter?
Published March 26, 2014 Jays Talk 11 CommentsTags: dustin mcgowan 2014, dustin mcgowan blue jays 2014, dustin mcgowan starting pitcher 2014, what to expect from dustin mcgowan 2014?
The Toronto Blue Jays today announced that Dustin McGowan would be in the starting rotation to begin the 2014 season. It was not completely unexpected given the state of the current rotation and what McGowan had shown during 2013 in the bullpen and over a few innings in spring training this year. However this is certainly rolling the dice and Alex Anthopoulos is taking a chance on a starting pitcher with good stuff but a hideous track record of poor health.
What can we expect from a pitcher who hasn’t started more than 19 games in one big league season since 2008?
Let us have a look at his last two seasons as a full-time starting pitcher with the Blue Jays:
IP | ERA | xFIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K/BB | GB% | |
D. McGowan – 2007 | 169.2 | 4.08 | 3.79 | 7.64 | 3.24 | 0.74 | 2.36 | 53.0 |
D. McGowan – 2008 | 111.1 | 4.37 | 4.27 | 6.87 | 3.07 | 0.73 | 2.24 | 41.4 |
Pitcher X | 124.2 | 2.96 | 4.03 | 7.80 | 2.96 | 0.87 | 2.63 | 41.1 |
Pitcher X has similar numbers overall when compared to Dustin McGowan’s numbers when he was last trying to establish himself as a big league starting pitcher. Pitcher X is none other than Brandon Morrow’s 2012 season.
McGowan was touching 94.7 MPH on his heater in 2007/2008 and that is the exact level he was hitting last season out of the bullpen. I would expect his velocity to dip a little bit making the full transition to the starting rotation nearly six years removed from being a full-time starter.
If Dustin McGowan can split the difference of 2007/2008 and provide 150+ innings as a starting pitcher that would certainly be a bonus. I can’t say I had any expectation McGowan would even return to the big leagues let alone be counted upon every five days.
I think the best case scenario is Dustin McGowan remains healthy all season and helps fans get over the sting of watching former Blue Jays SP Chris Carpenter reinvigorate his career with the St. Louis Cardinals. The worst case scenario is we have to watch McGowan end his career for good. All things considered I think this is a risk worth taking.
As per MLBTR:
The Padres will shut starting pitcher Josh Johnson down for 10 days to two weeks with a strained flexor, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. Johnson will be out for at least four weeks. It must be a frustrating injury for Johnson, who only started 16 games last season. While the injury doesn’t appear to threaten a huge portion of the season, the Padres can feel grateful for an option they built into Johnson’s contract — if Johnson starts fewer than seven games this season, the Padres get a $4MM option on his services for 2015.
QUICK REACTION: I was one of a few that thought it best to just roll the dice and bring JJ back for another go around in the Blue Jays rotation. This is already a tough start for the oft-injured right handed starting pitcher.
Hitters:
BAL MAJ Alvarez, Dariel RF 1 1 1 1 .667 HR (1)
BAL MAJ Schoop, Jonathan SS 4 0 1 0 .400
BAL MAJ Urrutia, Henry RF 4 0 1 0 .310
BOS MAJ Bradley, Jackie CF 3 0 1 0 .182
BOS MAJ Coyle, Sean 2B 1 0 1 1 1.000
BOS MAJ Marrero, Deven SS 3 1 1 1 .333
NYY MAJ Flores, Ramon LF 3 2 2 1 .269
NYY MAJ Sanchez, Gary PH-DH 1 1 1 2 .364 HR (2)
NYY MAJ Williams, Mason CF 2 0 1 1 .174
Pitchers:
BOS MAJ Britton, Drake 1.2 6 5 5 2 1 8.22
BOS MAJ Webster, Allen 4 3 3 2 3 3 5.25
NYY MAJ Betances, Dellin 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.00
NYY MAJ Greene, Shane 2 1 1 1 0 4 3.60
NYY MAJ Tanaka, Masahiro 4.1 3 1 1 2 6 1.93
TOR MAJ Sanchez, Aaron 4 5 0 0 1 3 0.00
Breaking Down AL East Free Agent Spending
Published March 16, 2014 AL East News , Jays Talk 1 CommentHere is how the AL East teams spent on free agent acquisitions this past off-season in chart form.
Team | Total $ | Players | Years | AAV |
New York Yankees | $471MM | 9 | 29 | $16.25 |
Baltimore Orioles | $70MM | 7 | 13 | $5.36 |
Boston Red Sox | $53MM | 5 | 7 | $7.54 |
Tampa Bay Rays | $39MM | 4 | 8 | $4.88 |
Toronto Blue Jays | $8MM | 1 | 2 | $4.00 |
Equally as disheartening is the point I mentioned in the 2014 State of the Union was the presence of teams who in past years hadn’t been active in free agency. The Seattle Mariners spent $268MM, Minnesota Twins $87MM, Kansas City Royals $67MM and Milwaukee Brewers $53MM. Only the Pittsburgh Pirates spent less than the Toronto Blue Jays coming in at only $7-million dollars.
Riding with the Wind, ’14: Spring Training News
Published March 16, 2014 Jays Talk , Quick Hits Leave a CommentTags: Blue Jays, blue jays home opener 2014, blue jays season opener 2014, Brandon Morrow, chad jenkins, Kyle Drabek, new york yankees, ra dickey, ryan goins, sean nolin, spring training, tampa bay rays, toronto blue jays 2014
There’s nothing major to report, just a few tidbits here and there as the Blue Jays continue to prepare for the season opener in a few weeks. RA Dickey will pitch the opener, as the Jays open the season with a 4-game set against the Rays in Tampa. The Yankees will then come to Toronto for a 3-game set for the Jays home opener. In an interesting turn of events, Brandon Morrow, who has a $13MM club option for 2015, has been slated as the #5 starter for the Jays this season. It’s conceivable that the Jays merely want him to pitch in Toronto against the NYY but, given his past success against the Rays, it’s not a pareticularly compelling argument. So launches what http://www.fangraphs.com has determined is the 3rd most difficult schedule in all of MLB…against the 2 inter-divisional rivals that give them the greatest trouble historically.
According to Bluebird Banter (from a tweet by Gregor Chisolm), the Jays have optioned pitchers Kyle Drabek, Sean Nolin, and Chad Jenkins to AAA Buffalo. None of the three had been terribly impressive in Spring Training, though that’s not Jenkins’ modus operandi anyways. Jenkins is the one pitcher who makes me furrow my eyebrows. There’s very little notable, or even noticeable, about him but he continues to get hitters out somehow. That said, the well-documented logjam that the Jays have in terms of MLB-calibre pitching forces their hand somewhat. These guys all had options left–though Drabek is out of options after 2014–so they were sent to Buffalo. Because they had options remaining, they would had to have had a brilliant camp to stick with the Jays.
Gregor Chisholm reports that RA Dickey pitched in the Jays’ minor league camp to take the next step of preparation. He pitched well, but that’s hardly important. What is important is that RA pitched 7.2 innings and threw 100 pitches. He continues to feel good as he stretches himself out during Spring Training. Blue Jays’ fans recall the neck/upper back muscle pain he experienced last season, contributing to a slow start for RA and, consequently, a slow start by the Jays.
One of the players in the spotlight this ST has been Ryan Goins. I think I speak for most fans when I say we don’t expect him to play like Roberto Alomar, however the starting job is his to lose. The question is, ‘how has been performing?’ Defensively he’s been solid although there have been a few errors sprinkled here and there. His range is good, turning the DP is good, etc. He’s no 2B version of Ozzie Smith but he’s more than merely passable. Offensively, however, is the major question mark. Presently he’s put up a .171/.237/.171 slash line in ST, making his detractors say, ‘see, see–he can’t hit!’ Maybe their right, and maybe he won’t. A couple of caveats apply, though: he’s pressing, adjusting to a new hitting coach, it’s ST, and the SS is small. How much rope do I give him? Well, enough to either hog-tie the position or fashion his own noose, I suppose.
So the Jays continue their inexorable march toward the 2014 regular season, with the opener a mere 15 days away from today. I confess to being somewhat ambivalent about this season after their performance in 2013 and their inactivity in the off season. There has been a lot of promise and expectations that have gone unfulfilled, and the so-called 3-year window hasn’t been extended. Mixed messages have been sent ot the fans, notably: (1) we need starting pitching, only to fail in that goal (to this point); and (2) the players attempting to lure Ervin Santana to Toronto, only to fail in their attempt and then turn around and say it wasn’t that important anyways. I’m in “wait-and-see” mode.
Wes Kepstro
AL East Prospect Report – March 14, 2014
Published March 14, 2014 Daily Prospect Reports Leave a CommentHitters:
BAL MAJ Alvarez, Dariel RF 1 0 1 0 .500
BAL MAJ Urrutia, Henry LF 4 0 2 0 .300
BOS MAJ Marrero, Deven SS 1 0 1 0 .294
HOU MAJ Correa, Carlos SS 5 2 2 3 .200 Went yard twice
HOU MAJ Fontana, Nolan PR-2B 2 0 1 0 .667
HOU MAJ Singleton, Jon 1B 3 1 1 1 .056 Rough spring, but homered
HOU MAJ Springer, George RF 2 2 1 0 .217 Showing good patience
TOR MAJ Pillar, Kevin LF 1 0 1 0 .136
Pitchers:
BAL MAJ Gausman, Kevin 2 1 1 1 1 0 2.57
BAL MAJ Stinson, Josh 2 0 0 0 0 2 0.00
BOS MAJ Workman, Brandon 3 2 0 0 0 3 7.27
NYM MAJ Syndergaard, Noah 3.2 2 3 3 2 5 5.19
NYY MAJ Greene, Shane 1 0 0 0 1 2 3.00
NYY MAJ Mitchell, Bryan 1 0 0 0 0 2 0.00