Blue Jays Could Risk Future By Not Addressing Present

The Toronto Blue Jays biggest trade deadline addition this season was….platoon infielder Danny Valencia.  Yeah, awesome.

In a wild trade deadline that saw names like David Price, Jon Lester and John Lackey move the Blue Jays stood pat and made no major acquisitions.  A lot of the time the deadline is in fact the worst time to make a move as the bidding is intense and the asking prices start to rise.  It can be very detrimental to the future of your franchise if you make the wrong move(s).

However this year the Blue Jays might have slightly risked their future by not addressing the present day roster.  Hear me out.

RA Dickey, Mark Buerhle and JA Happ.  That is who the Jays will be counting upon to a) attempt to make the playoffs and b) attempt to win a playoff series with.  Marcus Stroman is the future of the rotation but he has six maybe seven starts total remaining in his season before the Blue Jays brass has to seriously consider shutting down their shiny new toy.

Marcus Stroman’s highest inning count as a professional came last year when he threw 124 total innings.  He has over 109 innings thus far in 2014.  If the Blue Jays are willing to ratchet up his innings by 20% year-over-year Stroman would be able to throw around 148 innings this season.  That leaves 39 innings for the remainder of this season or around 6-7 starts.  That barely gets him to September.

Drew Hutchison is coming off Tommy John surgery and has shown enough promise this season that risking his future by pushing the innings down the stretch is just not an option in my opinion.  He has shown both flashes of brilliance and the inconsistencies of youth.

Drew Hutchison’s highest inning count as a professional came in 2011 when he threw 149 total innings.  He has over 119 innings thus far in 2014.  Considering he barely pitched last season and is coming off surgery I can’t see the Blue Jays going much over 150 total innings.  That leaves about 31 innings or about 5-6 starts.

If you are satisfied with JA Happ as a permanent member of the starting staff the Blue Jays will be without two of their best arms when the games will presumably mean the most, and that’s if the team is smart in terms of not abusing their top two young arms.

Perhaps Brandon Morrow has been secretly held back for this very reason and will be the saviour of the season but if I’m Alex Anthopoulos I’d be very concerned about my job security at seasons end.  This was not the year to come away empty handed in terms of a starting pitcher (or two) who can be relied upon to pitch meaningful innings in September (and beyond).

I hate to have such a negative, knee-jerk reaction but the fact of the matter is the Blue Jays have essentially decided to give this season away.  They didn’t add to a weakened bullpen, they didn’t add a desperately needed veteran pitcher and they didn’t help a quickly deteriorating public relations problem.

If the richest owner in the game of baseball couldn’t fork out another $10-12 million (prorated) to help the current roster while at the same time eliminating the temptation to push our top two arms to the breaking point shame on them.   This article doesn’t even begin to touch on what message this is sending your star players.  Specifically Jose Bautista who was none to happy with the recent inactivity at the deadline.

Did Melky Cabrera Take Subtle Swipe at Teammate RA Dickey Via Twitter?

This was probably an innocent mistake but one Melky Cabrera favorite the following Tweet on Thursday, July 3, 2014:

The #BlueJays should really receive Daniel Murphy from the Mets as a player to be named from the Dickey trade. Only fair.

— MB81 (@ALEastbound) July 3, 2014

This prompted a quick reply from an astute Blue Jays fan:

https://twitter.com/F_T_Smasher/status/484789207538212866

Read what you will into this.*

Even after his last start which was a complete game his stats for 2014 are less than stellar.  Through 112 IPs Dickey has a 4.10 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 4.68 FIP and 1.29 HR/9.  In 30.2 June IPs Dickey had an almost unfathomable 2.93 HR/9 as 28.6 of his fly balls left the yard.  There is a lot of talk on Twitter (always a reliable source of fandom) that Dickey needs to be taken out of the rotation.

Without a proper replacement there is absolutely no sense in taking out one of the few starting pitchers who can actually pitch 200+ innings.  I am worried that with a division on the line and an impatient fan base to please the Blue Jays are going to really push the envelope with our tender young arms Marcus Stroman and Drew Hutchison.  Stroman has barely reached the 100 inning mark as a professional and Hutchison is still fairly fresh of his Tommy John surgery and I am not sure how far he can be pushed.

RA Dickey is definitely here to stay.  That’s not necessarily a bad thing if he can live up to his ZIPS (rest of season) projections of 90 inning, 4.21 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.  Perhaps his last start will jump-start him into the second half of the season.  The Blue Jays are certainly counting on him.

*Today’s hack job brought to you by Jerry Springer.

Leaked MLB Trade Chat: Blue Jays Were Willing to Move Marcus Stroman For Bud Norris?

Have you ever wondered how active today’s general managers are in terms of discussing potential trades?  Have you wanted to know exactly how they communicate with one another and what they are discussing?  Well thanks to a Julian Assange like leak in the Astro’s front office you can now get a pretty solid look.

Dave Cameron posted this story on Fangraphs today and it is well worth a look for yourself if curious.  The Toronto Blue Jays were front and centre in discussions/negotiations and it appears the reputation of Alex Anthopoulos frequently ‘checking’ in on players and gauging value might be true.

Here are all of the details involving the Toronto Blue Jays.

1) Blue Jays were willing to part with at least Marcus Stroman for Bud Norris.

7/19/2013 “AA texted JL and asked what it would take for Norris.  AA said Aaron Sanchez is off the table but might be willing to talk about anyone else.”

7/29/2013 “AA texted JL and asked what a package around Stroman might look like.  JL said Stroman + Gose would be in consideration.”

Well consider this a bullet dodged.  The Astros were apparently asking for the moon for league average starting pitcher Bud Norris last season.  They asked the Orioles for Dylan Bundy and the Red Sox for Xander Bogaerts before finally settling on the much less exciting package of L.J. Hoes and Josh Hader from the Baltimore Orioles.

Bud Norris was awful for the Orioles last season in only 50.2 IPs (4.80 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) and though he has actually been pretty serviceable for them this year (87 IPs, 3.62 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 4.49 FIP) he is certainly not amazing.

If the Blue Jays valued any type of veteran starting pitcher that highly it seems quite likely they would be willing to give up nearly anything for Jeff Samardzija or David Price.  Hopefully they don’t jettison Marcus Stroman to the Chicago Cubs for Jason Hammel though I think it’s safe to assume Stroman’s value is a lot higher now than it was last summer.

I wonder if the Blue Jays brain trust had questions about Marcus Stroman’s attitude or worries about his potential as a starting pitcher around this time last year?   It seems the Jays were more than willing to add his name to trade discussions.

2) Blue Jays asked about the price of catcher Jason Castro – desperately wanting to upgrade over JP Arencibia in the off-season.

10/18/2013 “TOR reached out on Jason Castro.  They said their #1 priority this offseason is to upgrade over Arencibia.  They want to get a sense for what the price would be on Castro.”

Alex Anthopoulos is rumored to be extremely thorough and is an avid window shopper, asking about nearly any player in the league to gauge value and price.  No details were discussed surrounding price but you can believe Marcus Stroman + + + would have been required.  This type of inquiry is still fairly easy to wrap your head around JP Arencibia had one of the worst seasons in baseball and Jason Castro would have been a huge upgrade.

3) Blue Jays still viewed Brett Lawrie as a cornerstone heading into the 2014 season.

11/13/2013 “AA said Lawrie is untouchable.  Sounded like they might consider a smaller deal for Stroman but later in off-season.”

Even after a bit of a rough season (compared to expectations) the Blue Jays front office were not panicking.  They still feel Brett Lawrie is a potential leader of this ball club.  Prior to his injury I have been quite satisfied with the player he has become.  Stellar defense at two infield positions along with solid power shown at the plate make him fairly indispensable at this stage.  In 69 games he has hit 12 HRs to go with a respectable .419 SLG% and has amassed a solid 1.5 fWAR.

It goes without saying that I am certain the Blue Jays (and all other teams included in this report) are likely furious this type of data was leaked.  While it was anonymously uploaded by a rogue employee this type of thing shouldn’t happen.  You can also bet that teams will be looking into their own information and data security protocols quite closely as we speak.

The Astros have issued the following statement regarding the leaked notes:

“Last month, we were made aware that proprietary information held on Astros’ servers and in Astros’ applications had been illegally obtained. Upon learning of the security breach, we immediately notified MLB security who, in turn, notified the FBI. Since that time, we have been working closely with MLB security and the FBI to the determine the party, or parties, responsible. This information was illegally obtained and published, and we intend to prosecute those involved to the fullest extent.

“It is unfortunate and extremely disappointing that an outside source has illegally obtained confidential information. While it does appear that some of the content released was based on trade conversations, a portion of the material was embellished or completely fabricated.”

It certainly made for some interesting reading and was exciting enough to force this lazy blogger to actually write a new piece!

Jeff Samardzija Would Help Blue Jays, But Deal Cannot Include Drew Hutchison

With the Toronto Blue Jays playing some of their best baseball in years and currently leading the wide open AL East division speculation will once again heat up that the Jays are seeking help for their starting rotation.  The current rotation features RA Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Drew Hutchison, JA Happ and the recently called up Liam Hendricks who has taken the place of Dustin McGowan.

Dickey, Buehrle and Hutch have all performed admirably and perhaps above expectations thus far this season.  Happ has been strong recently but it is hard to envision and contending team showing complete faith in him given the rather weak track record in terms of major league success.  Hendricks was only recently called up and the fifth starter spot has been a sore spot all season.

This leads me to the point of this piece.  The Blue Jays will be looking for external help and all indications are they have at the very least kicked tires on acquiring Jeff Samardzija from the Chicago Cubs.  The man they call ‘Shark’ is having a career season in terms of ERA (1.46), WHIP (1.09) and ground ball rate (51.6%).

Samardzija, currently 29 years old is a very solid starting pitcher but if the rumored price of at least two of Drew Hutchison, Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman I think Alex Anthopoulos should tread carefully.  First off trading one of our best current starting pitchers just to add another makes zero sense and perhaps the Cubs are trying to set an early high price to see if a team blinks first.

Second this would be buying a pitcher at likely the peak of his value.  Thru 68 innings in 2014 Shark has seen his K-rate dip to a career low 7.15 K/9 and his BABIP is at a career low .264 (career .294 mark) which has certainly helped his overall stat line.  His current HR/FB rate is 3.9% – which is not sustainable compared to his 10.5% career rate.  His strand rate is also at a career high 82% compared to his career rate of 72%.

This has all added up to a career best ERA and WHIP.  Now he has taken a bit of a different approach this season as witness by his pitch selection.  In 2013 he utilized his four-seam (straight) fastball 25.1% while in 2014 that has dropped to 17.1%.  This season he has tried to use his two-seam (sinking) fastball much more (39.6%) more than last year (27.7%).  This has helped lead to a higher overall groundball rate but overall he has not missed as many bats at in years past.

His current swinging strike rate is 8.2% (10.1% for his career) as batters are making higher overall contact.  Yes some of that is likely by design but it is never a good thing for a pitcher to suddenly start missing less bats.  According to Pitch FX data his fastball has seen about a one mile per hour dip – nothing huge but at age 29 his velocity will continue to decline going forward.

Finally bring any pitcher into the AL East and there is bound to be a bit of a learning curve.  Yes it is not the division it once was but that is more due to the injury prone starting rotations and not the overall level of offense.  There is no guarantee Samardzija comes over to the AL East and the Rogers Centre and pitches like an ace – which is the type of production needed to justify the current asking price.

I hope the price comes down but with so many teams still gunning for the playoffs that seems doubtful.  Shark would be a great addition to our rotation and could go a long way to solidifying our starting rotation but that addition cannot come at any cost.  If the price for Jeff Samardzija (3.46 xFIP, 1.5 WAR in 68 IPs) begins with Drew Hutchison (3.56 xFIP, 1.5 WAR in 60 IPs) the price is already much too steep and the answer must be no.

Marcus Stroman Gets the Call – To Bullpen?

As per MLBTR:

The Blue Jays will call up right-handed pitching prospect Marcus Stroman, the team told reporters (including Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca) after tonight’s loss to the Pirates.  Stroman will pitch out of the bullpen for the Jays, at least at first, though he has pitched exclusively as a starter for the last two minor league seasons and there had been rumors that he was on pace to join the rotation.  A corresponding move will come tomorrow, as Stroman isn’t on Toronto’s 40-man roster.

Stroman, who just turned 23 years old on Thursday, was taken by the Jays with the 22nd overall pick of the 2012 amateur draft.  He began his pro career in ignominious fashion by serving a 50-game suspension for a PED violation, but returned to post a 3.30 ERA, 10.4 K/9 and 4.78 K/BB rate over 20 Double-A starts in 2013 and has been even better in five Triple-A starts this season — a 1.69 ERA, 12.2 K/9 and 5.14 K/BB rate over 26 2/3 IP.

QUICK TAKE: I am not surprised that Stroman gets the nod as the next pitcher heading to the big leagues but I guess I am a bit perplexed as to why he won’t be in the rotation.  I would much rather see Dustin McGowan head back to the pen where he is probably going to end up anyway and just add JA Happ and Marcus Stroman to the rotation.

There are pitchers who have begun as relievers in the big leagues and still transitioned to the rotation successfully but given the Blue Jays track record of struggling to develop solid starting pitchers I wouldn’t take that chance with one of our best prospects at this juncture in his career.

Does the bullpen need help?  Absolutely.  But I just don’t think this is the smartest move for the franchise.

Has Kevin Seitzer Improved Blue Jays Plate Discipline?

Well after another blown save and lackluster bullpen performance by the Toronto Blue Jays there record fell to 13-16 and are now three full games behind the first place Baltimore Orioles.  During the JP Ricciardi era it seemed that one year the Blue Jays bats would be unstoppable but the pitching didn’t keep up, or vice versa.

Perhaps a team on a shoestring budget (at that point) just has to put up with such things.  Last year it felt like we had wasted one of the best bullpens the team has ever had as the offense and starting pitching was just ok.  This season I wanted to have a look at the offense.  I hadn’t actually looked until writing this piece today but it felt like the Blue Jays under Kevin Seitzer had become a more patient team at the plate.

Let’s take a look shall we?

On the season the Blue Jays have scored an impressive 134 runs – ranking 7^th in all of baseball.  They have hit 35 homeruns (4^th) and .330 wOBA (6^th).  As a team the Blue Jays swung at 45.4% of all pitches thrown and so far this year only 43.1% (the fourth lowest in the majors FYI).

Let’s take a look at individual batter numbers:

Swing%	2013	2014	Diff
Jose Reyes	43.8%	47.4%	3.6
Melky Cabrera	47.6%	45.0%	2.6
Jose Bautista	39.2%	34.0%	-5.2
Edwin Encarnacion	41.9%	43.5%	1.6
Dioner Navarro	46.3%	43.5%	-2.8
Adam Lind	41.7%	34.6%	-7.1
Colby Rasmus	45.0%	48.2%	3.2
Brett Lawrie	47.5%	51.5%	4.0
Ryan Goins	43.8%	41.1%	-2.7

Sort of a mixed bag when looking player by player and you can plainly see that a majority of the overall lower swing rate comes from Jose Bautista and Adam Lind.  Saying that those are three of the more important cogs in the lineup and of course they will make up a good deal of overall plate appearances.

The Blue Jays have a few free swingers that aren’t likely to start changing now.  Brett Lawrie swinging as often as Melky Cabrera given the differences in contact skills might explain some of his early season batting average struggles.

While not conclusive down the entire lineup card as a team the Blue Jays are trying to work the count a little deeper and have swung at less pitches overall.  Ranking 4^th overall in swing percentage is a good thing.  Ranking 1-3 are the Twins, Rays and Red Sox and all three are in the top ten in runs scored early on in 2014.

Getting the starting pitcher out of the game and facing pitchers like Todd Redmond in key run scoring opportunities can only help the team in the long run.  I hope this new approach continues as it makes the Blue Jays a tougher team to play against.

Obligatory & Early Edwin Encarnacion Is Struggling Piece

So it has been quite a slow start for the Blue Jays best overall hitter Edwin Encarnacion.  He has looked a little off to start the year and I wanted to see if there was anything that stood out in his stat set that might explain why?  April can be a difficult month to write about baseball given the small sample sizes that abound in the early going.

Thus far our beloved EE has amassed 83 plate appearances over the first 19 games so there is at least a reasonable level of data to analyze.  The first stat that obviously sticks out is the big donut in the homerun column.  Encarnacion has been one of the best power hitters in baseball over the last two seasons hitting 42 and 36 dingers respectively.

So far this season Encarnacion is slashing a pretty dismal 230/313/324 and considering he is returning from the occasional power sapping wrist surgery Blue Jays fans have the right to be a tad concerned.  Let’s compare some stats from the early going to his last two complete seasons to see some of the trends.

First some basic and counting stats:

EE	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	wRC+	wOBA	ISO
2012	.280	.384	.557	13.0%	14.6%	151	.396	.277
2013	.272	.370	.534	13.2%	10.0%	145	.388	.262
2014	.230	.313	.324	10.8%	22.9%	81	.291	.095

It doesn’t take a strong grasp of advanced statistics to see that Encarnacion is off to a rotten start.  His 2014 line looks more like Munenori Kawasaki than that of one of the most dangerous sluggers in the game.  Perhaps most concerning is that Encarnacion is striking out well above his career rate of 15.9% and over twice as much as his 2013 10.0% mark.

Let’s take a closer look at some batted ball data:

EE	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	BABIP
2012	17.6%	33.0%	49.5%	12.0%	18.7%	.266
2013	21.6%	35.1%	43.3%	9.3%	17.6%	.247
2014	18.2%	38.2%	43.6%	4.2%	0.0%	.309

Overall there is nothing that stands out besides the unsustainably low homerun to fly-ball percentage.  I really expected to see his infield fly-ball percentage to be high-ish but clearly Edwin’s two biggest problems thus far are the fly-balls he is hitting currently aren’t leaving the yard and overall contact issues.

Let’s visit the latter claim to see if it holds true:

EE	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	Z-Contact%	Contact%	F-Strike%	SwStrk%
2012	21.8%	59.8%	41.0%	87.0%	82.1%	55.4%	7.2%
2013	24.4%	60.5%	41.3%	89.4%	84.3%	59.9%	6.3%
2014	27.8%	60.0%	42.7%	87.8%	79.0%	67.5%	9.0%

So far this season Encarnacion is fishing a little more outside of the strike-zone according to Fangraphs pitch f/x data.  He is also making a career low overall contact rate and a near career worst swinging strike percentage.  Simply put he is swinging through a lot more pitches that in the past he has been able to ‘barrel’.

Based on the ‘eye test’ of watching his at-bats it isn’t hard to tell that he is definitely out of sync.  He appears less balanced, more easily frustrated and a touch late on pitches he can hit.  Hitters will always go through prolonged slumps and given the track record of success for Edwin Encarnacion one need not ring the alarm bells quite yet.

Riding with the Wind, ’14: An Apology

Usually we use the word “apology” to say “I’m sorry”. That’s not what I’m doing here. I’m using the word apology as the transliterated form of the Greek word ‘apologia’, meaning ‘defense’. In other words I’m going to defend something or someone. In this case I’m going to defend something AND someone, because the something can’t be separated from the someone. They are linked inextricably.

On Friday April 11, 2014 Dustin McGowan was credited with his first win as a starting pitcher since 2008. It was one of those feel-good moments that have been too few and too far between for the Jays over the last several seasons. Not only did he get the win, but he threw 6.1 IP of shutout ball against the Orioles at Camden Yards. It was heady stuff.

Perhaps you recall the immediate variables that helped to make this a story:

• a good fielding team had to make 2 errors to help a scuffling offense;
• hard-hit balls had to be caught by the Jays’ defense, an Achilles heel in 2013;
• Dusty had to shut down a potent offense that typically feasts on Jays’ pitching;
• good coaching decisions and timing needed to play a role, since Dusty’s still just getting his feet wet in MLB again.

I suppose a host of other unseen and unthought-of factors played roles, too, but this is good enough for a good story.  These don’t even scratch the surface of all the years of agony and disappointment for McGowan, the Jays, and their fans.

The Something…

The bullpen for the Toronto Blue Jays is the Something. A lot of effort and energy has gone into this facet of the team. It has been somewhat frustrating and more than a little bewildering to watch the Jays focus so intently on this as the something. Why not the rotation? Why not the defense? Why not the offense? Why spend so much time on the bullpen, for crying out loud?

Since 2010, its several incarnations have appeared as follows. The players listed are the most oft-used bullpen pitchers:

• 2010: Gregg, Camp, Janssen, Frasor, Downs;
• 2011: Francisco, Janssen, Camp, Rauch, Frasor, Rzepczynski;
• 2012: Janssen, Villanueva, Oliver, Frasor, Cordero, Perez;
• 2013: Janssen, Loup, Cecil, Delabar, Oliver.

The first couple of seasons, 2010-2011, were years of ‘try, try again.’ Not many cried when Gregg wasn’t re-signed; I almost did when Downs wasn’t. Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch still give some Jays’ fans recurring nightmares, partly because Frankie F cost the Jays Mike Napoli. That’s another story for another time, though. Rzep was a quality LOOGY+ and young, too, but he was part of the price for a young CF.

It began to come together in 2012, experimenting with Janssen as the Closer and bringing quality LHP Darren Oliver on board. Cordero was a bust. Frasor was reliable and had a rubber arm. The starting rotation fell apart in mid-June, though. JA Happ and others were acquired near the deadline to shore up the ‘pen and the rotation, but the season was lost anyways. Shipping Travis Snider to PIT for Brad Lincoln was a little painful, too.

It was supposed to gel in 2013. Big off season trades, combined with a stronger ‘pen, were key parts of a seemingly well-rounded team. Steve Delabar showed he was for real, Brett Cecil was looking sharp early and if they could ever get Sergio Santos to stay healthy, his fastball and slider were deadly. But nothing gelled, nothing at all. It all fizzled amid great-but-frustratingly-unmet expectations. Well, check that: the bullpen gelled. They were solid all season.

Fast forward to 2014 after an off season of virtual non-activity, and the Jays’ ‘pen is even more of a shut down ‘pen than they were previously. The offense has sputtered, but the defense, starting pitching, and bullpen have been good.

At present, the ‘pen consists of:

• Casey Janssen (CL; DL); Sergio Santos (CL); Steve Delabar; Brett Cecil; Aaron Loup; Neil Wagner; Todd Redmond; and Esmil Rogers.

They have two closers, and two other guys (Delabar; Cecil) capable of closing. They have two high quality LHP capable of going 1+ IP, striking out plenty, inducing ground balls, but also can be used as LOOGYs. Career minor leaguer Neil Wagner throws hard (95+ mph), has good control, and he’s their sixth/seventh inning guy. Rogers and Redmond are both long men who can start in a pinch and give them quality innings. Then there’s JA Happ, the LHP on the DL, who’s at least the equal, talent-wise, to Rogers and Redmond.

The Someone…

This of course is Alex Anthopoulos, the much-maligned GM of the Toronto Blue Jays. A quick perusal of the transactions page at baseball-reference.com (here) will show that the majority of deals made by Anthopoulos have involved at least one reliever going in one direction. Several deals have been larger, involving a number of relievers. This focus on the bullpen was frustrating, since the on-field product was poor and getting worse. After all, why waste time on something that exerts so little influence on the game’s outcome? Because it’s the AL East, that’s why.

There are currently two bullpens dominating the American League. They have everything they need to succeed. They stand head and shoulders above the rest of the AL, and actually could get (much) better as the season wears on. Rather than reproducing the table, I’ll just include the link so you can see for yourselves. (We don’t want to use up virtual paper unnecessarily here at AL Eastbound.) Keep in mind that the sample sizes are miniscule (9-12 games; fewer than 50 IP; etc.). Also bear in mind that Toronto’s ‘pen did this last year, too, for the most part.

Against Baltimore, Dustin McGowan gave up some rockets. It’s not surprising: he’s still just getting his feet wet again, and those Orioles have some rocket launchers. His 6.1 IP of shutout ball was pretty impressive, as was the 2.2 IP by Brett Cecil and Sergio Santos. Cecil and Santos struck out 5 of the 8 batters they faced. No hits, no walks, no blips or glitches, just shut down ball. It was a nice period at the end of that particular sentence. Dustin McGowan, good start, blah, blah, blah, bullpen. Lights out. Well done, Alex Anthopoulos, well done.

Wes Kepstro

Riding with the Wind, ’14: Week One

Well, the first week of the 2014 season hasn’t exactly been exemplary for the Toronto Blue Jays. They played the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees in their first seven games of the season and are 3-4 at the end of a week.  A split in Tampa was somewhat encouraging; a series loss to the apparently over-the-hill-and-lost-their-skills Yankees wasn’t.  The Jays also lost Jose Reyes and Casey Janssen to the DL, forcing them to scramble a little.

RA Dickey has been (very) bad once and (very) good once, as has Drew Hutchison, though they did it in opposite fashion.  Mark Buehrle was staggeringly dominant.  Brandon Morrow and Dustin McGowan, the feel good story of Spring Training, were eminently hittable.  What we saw from two of the starters–Dickey; Morrow–was within expectations.  What we saw from another two–McGowan; Hutchison–was a learning experience.  What we saw from one of them–Buehrle–will probably never happen again.  Interestingly, however, the Jays were #1 in MLB in rotation WAR before the rubber match against the Yankees.  Improvement over last season is essential, but do they have the horses?

The bullpen, sans Casey Janssen who is also on the DL, has been its usual self: solid and over-worked.  A few blips are expected, as their #13 rank in MLB in ‘pen WAR attests, but overall they’ve acquitted themselves well.  In the series finale against NY, for instance, Todd Redmond, Steve Delabar, and Esmil Rogers combined to throw 5.2 IP of 3-hit, no-run ball with 1 BB and 6 Ks against the NYY, allowing the Jays at least the opportunity to get back into the game.  This is a good ‘pen that will get better when Janssen returns.  In a surprising early move Jeremy Jeffress, who struggled to find the strike zone, was DFA’ed and replaced by Marcus Walden.

Offensively, the Jays have either been brutal or very good.  Edwin Encarnacion, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Goins, Moises Sierra, and Brett Lawrie are struggling mightily and fit the fomer designation.  Edwin struggled out of the gate last season, then really hit his stride.  Expect that to happen again.  Colby’s off to a cold start and Goins/Sierra have little-to-no experience but Lawrie’s struggles are troubling.  He came up with a good reputation, but has yet to adjust well to the big leagues.  It’s difficult to know what to expect from Brett Lawrie.  Sierra’s still looking for his first hit of the season.  Goins wasn’t expected to hit.

Jose Bautista, Melky Cabrera, and Adam Lind are hitting well.  Jose looks like 2010-2011 Jose in the early going.  A tumour-less Melky is a sight to behold, running hard and pounding balls all over the yard.  His 3 HR already equal his total of 2013.  Expect a 3.0-3.5 fWAR season from him.  Adam Lind and Maicer Izturis are both off to very good starts offensively.  Jonathan Diaz, Reyes’ replacement, has contributed positive WAR so far, and reminds some of former super-sub John MacDonald.

The catching trio of Navarro, Thole, and Kratz isn’t a black hole in any way, which is refreshing.  Kratz was re-called when Janssen was put on the DL, Thole has caught Dickey twice and Navarro is receiving rave reviews from teammates.  He’s contributed offensively, as well, but not enough to be a positive contributor.  It’s his defense and game management that’s in focus.  Defensively, the trio really needs to work on throwing out base stealers.  The trio ranks 10th in MLB defensively, which is a serious upgrade.  Interestingly, the teams that rank #1 and #2 in catcher defense this season are the Mets and Texas.

Defensively this team is light years ahead of last year’s squad.  Diaz and Goins have been solid up the middle, as has Colby Rasmus.  Melky’s covering ground very well for him.  We don’t expect a Gold Glove, but we’re being treated to a vast improvement.  Melky and Rasmus both have OF assists already.  Lawrie’s hitting struggles aren’t affecting his play in the field adversely, while Lind and Encarnacion are passable at 1B.  Jose is Jose in RF.

The Blue Jays are 3-4, all against AL East opponents.  They have only one off day in April (tomorrow, April 7), and no off days in May.  It’s not going to be easy for them but, frustratingly, it’s crucial to get off to a good start in the AL East.  Last season the Jays were 2-5 after 7 games, on their way to a 10-17 April record.

This team needs to hold their own for the first couple of months.  A .500 record after a month or so is perfectly acceptable, because runs can be made.  Digging themselves too deep a hole, as they did in 2013, will result in another sub-par season and, undoubtedly, some significant changes.  What I’d like to see is consistency, whether consistently bad or consistently good is irrelevant to me.  Either way, they know what they have and corresponding moves can be made.

Wes Kepstro

Balance of Power – Blue Jays Struggles With Tampa Bay More Than Just Simple Road Woes

After beginning the season with a series split against the AL East powerhouse Tampa Bay Rays I was beginning to think of what it would take for the Toronto Blue Jays to really become an annual contender themselves.  I fully expect this season to be up and down and if the Blue Jays finish the season around the .500 mark I don’t think most fans would be shocked.

But no I am talking about becoming extremely competitive, year in and year out.

How can a team truly consider themselves a contender when you hear the words “if he stays healthy” for 60% of the starting rotation?  Yes health is a key equation for any potential success league wide but if health will almost completely dictate your fate then you were defeated before you even began the season.

The key to this current season for me isn’t Brandon Morrow, RA Dickey or even Jose Reyes.  This season the key players will be the development of Drew Hutchison, Daniel Norris, Kyle Drabek, Marcus Stroman, Roberto Osuna and Aaron Sanchez.  In short development of the most volatile commodity in baseball will be the real key for the franchise going forward.

The Tampa Bay Rays are the model organization in baseball and when they lose a key member of the starting rotation there is no panic, just a replacement.  James Shields would have been the best pitcher the Blue Jays organization has had over the last decade not named Roy Halladay.

The Rays rotation not only continued to thrive in his absence but they were able to parlay Shields into a potential all-star in right field.  Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, Matt Moore and Jake Odorizzi make it easy for a team to simply trade their ace and if not for injury they would have stud right handed prospect Taylor Guerreri knocking on the proverbial major league door as well.

The Blue Jays need to take a step back and reassess what is working and what is not.  The current major league team is not a contender and when Josh Johnson and RA Dickey proved to be less than Ace 1 and Ace 1a this team never had a chance as currently constructed.  Alex Anthopoulos right or wrong took his shot and unfortunately appears to have come up short.

I don’t doubt his intentions and neither did a majority of the fan base.  While I don’t think anyone in their right mind thought the trade of Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard for RA Dickey was shrewd the notion of contending in 2013 can somewhat justify the move.  Of course in hindsight it could turn out to be one of the most lop-sided trades in the Alex Anthopoulos era.

I think it was simply a case where the Blue Jays made their move about one season too soon.  If they had Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino, Drew Hutchison and Marcus Stroman all knocking on the door ready to contribute to a major league roster it makes filling out a winning roster much easier.

Bringing in Ervin Santana would not have been the answer.  If the team had been close to the playoffs last season I think you could justify if not promote bringing in that extra piece or as a replacement for Josh Johnson but when a season goes so off the rails and was nowhere near good enough the entire roster is likely due for a major tune-up.

If the engine of a race car just can’t match the output of other race cars there is no sense buying expensive tires to compensate.  Though it will be painful and a sign of defeat the engine must be rebuilt.  This isn’t to say that there is a complete blow-up of the current team but until we can roll out a young quartet of starting pitchers that Tampa Bay possesses or we decide that no price is too great to sign Yu Darvish, Zack Greinke or David Price then we are not in a place to contend.

Mark Buehrle was brought in to be the number four or five starter but is now seemingly our only reliable option every five days.  That should tell a team everything it needs to know.  The path to major league success is not linear and I hold out hope that one or two (or more) of Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison, Kyle Drabek, Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris, Roberto Osuna take a big step forward in 2014.

If the trade of either Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion can speed up the quick retool with a too good to pass up offer of young cost controlled pitching prospects than I think Alex Anthopoulos has to give strong consideration to pulling the trigger.  I love both hitters but the market has shown you can add veteran sluggers (maybe not at their level) on the cheap.  Nelson Cruz was barely able to land a contract and Stephen Drew continues to sit out waiting for an appropriate contract.

I have enjoyed the early season Blue Jays action because I am a loyal fan of the team and they have looked sharper with the gloves and have shown some resolve playing in a house of horrors.  Like anyone else I am quietly optimistic that the team plays above expectations and fights for playoff contention.

But I am also a realist who gets discouraged when I compare our current organizational depth chart with our rivals from Tampa Bay.  Pitching has to come from internal development, astute trades and occasionally free agency.  The team has had a very difficult time drafting and developing legitimate major league starting pitchers and that is still very concerning.

Until we roll into Tampa Bay with a starting rotation that can match or exceed the Rays it will continue to be a house of horrors.  The balance of power in the AL East has shifted considerably over the last decade and it certainly hasn’t proved advantageous to the Toronto Blue Jays.